For my own research (to understand those who do not prepare in advance) and for my friends benefit I conducted the following study:

I selected 18 people at random (of those friends I felt wouldn't freak out) and offered them $50 for a maximum of one hour work. All of them set aside an hour and I came over to their houses/apartments. I then said the following to them:

"An emergency has occurred that requires you to evacuate as soon as possible. You are to take the items you feel you would need to survive outside of the city. You may not be able to return to a functioning city. Do not expect to be rescued. Begin now. You are being timed."

None of the participants were serious survivalists at the time.

Ages were from 23-40 years old

The following was observed:

1) Not one person had a kit ready to go.
2) All of them were thinking out loud as they prepared their kits for their families. The thinking did not follow a logical order.
3) Everyone chose some type of backpack for their gear.
4) Not one had ALL of the following: A knife, A means to start fire, A pot to boil water.
5) 8 people after the exercise created a bug out pack for future use.
6) One year after the exercise only 1 person had a bug out pack. The others had used pack items and would have to reassemble the kit.
7) All participants learned A GREAT deal! Every one of them felt they'd do better the next time. Of the 3 people retested all 3 had all the critical items and more (although they had to assemble a kit from scratch)
8) Although there was no specific time limit other than to evacuate 'as soon as possible' the mean time was 14 minutes until they were out the door. The shortest was 2 minutes the longest 23 minutes.
9) Everyone was very stressed while running the test. Oddly, they all had emotional reactions like it was somewhat real. Including yelling at each other to hurry or yelling angrily to get certain items.
10) All of them found it fun. This may have been the most surprising thing for me. I suspect a great portion of that was due to the fact that they thought they'd have to work to make the $50 each. This could also explain why they took it emotionally seriously.
11) All of them forgot to take RX meds including antibiotics they were on and birth control. Some even forgot needed eye glasses. Only 4 took their wallets/ID.

During the initial exercise most didn't have any knives (some had flimsy $1 kitchen knives with a serrated edge). Fire starters were lighters or paper matches. Clothing was almost all cotton. Every one forgot to take water (although some had canned goods with high water content). As stated earlier Not one had ALL of the following: A knife, A means to start fire, A pot to boil water.

I created lists of what people took. Some items were rather amusing.

What I learned:

1) The average person in an evacuation will likely forget key survival items.
2) They will take about 14 minutes to evacuate IF they feel some sort of time pressure.
3) Anyone who takes this test is changed long term. In the event they have to evacuate they will make far better choices. Yay! Humans can learn!
4) Without further encouragement sloth and habit will degrade most material benefits. Packs were canablized for camping and daily use. The need to maintain said packs was overridden by convenience.


Of the three who were retested two were given a call in the middle of the night to evacuate (I was outside their door with a cellphone) They had no prior warning (these friends were obviously closer to me. I felt comfortable that they wouldn't be upset by the request and since they direly needed money at the time they were actually quite happy about it.

Something to think about anyway. If you ever want to teach non-survivalists to think correctly in an evacuation run this test on them.

-NIM