Where I live, COVID cases are over-counted. Our authorities are on the record stating that every decedent in my county who tests positive is counted as a COVID death, excepting only obvious trauma victims.

There is a counter-argument that in some places COVID deaths are being undercounted. That could certainly be the case.

This goes to risk evaluation: with the data available being unusably poor, we're being more conservative in our precautions than we might otherwise be. We're doing the same with precautions regarding civil disorder. With so much of what's happening not being reported in the news, we're being more conservative in our precautions.

On the plus side, staying home is good for both of these potential threats.