Thanks for posting. Yes all the studies seem to indicate moderate risks. When I say moderate, I mean the chance of an earthquake above mag 7 is quite small.

I dont know what to make of it, really. It all depends on data sets. The scientists are using a limited data set where thry have good data. That makes sense, but it does not tell the whole story.

I went back and looked at all the LA quakes from the time they were first recorded by people. I came to the conclusion that we should see 2 quakes every 25 years, more or less. A smaller quake (mag 4-5) and a larger quake (mag 5-7). Of course, the pattern changes constantly. But the stats that I am quoting seem more frequent than what the recent published studies say. It is possible that the last century was a relatively quiet time of the Earth in the LA Basin. It has not always been that way. The last 20-25 years in LA have marked an unusual lull in activity. It wont last much longer.

I wish that we had the oral records of the California Indians, because they knew a greater history. Sadly, that knowledge was lost when their culture was destroyed. It is possible that the Indians knew something from their oral history that could really help us today.

Edited by Pete (03/23/19 06:11 PM)