I am not knowledgeable in weather forecasting, but is weather modeling an Olympic event? If the results of the European model are available, why are there competing models? Is hemispheric pride at stake? If money is spent on refining models, why not more collaboration? (granted that competition is often healthy...)
I think the issue that Dr. Mass is calling attention to involves much more than just hurricane forecasts. I think his point is that
US weather modeling in general is falling behind.
There is a whole range of models, of varying scales in time and distance. Some, like the "European Model" (ECMWF), are global scale models for forecasting major weather systems for the next week or so. Other smaller regional models are for more local weather. Still other long term models are for long term climate change issues. If hikermor is worried about hurricanes interfering with his trip next week to Disneyworld, the ECMWF is a good one. On the other hand, if hikermor wants to know if Santa Anna winds will mess with this afternoon's bike ride, the ECMWF is probably of limited help.
The
ECMWF is produced (and funded) by a consortium of European countries. While it is global in scale (to predict large scale weather systems), the consortium is naturally most interested in weather systems that will impact Europe. Also, there are restrictions on what is made available to the public, and to non member nations.
The IFS is a global model that runs every twelve hours. Its output runs out to fifteen days in one-day intervals (although output is only made available to most members of the public out to 7 to 10 days, depending on the variable).
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Because the IFS only offers output on a day-by-day interval, each individual ECMWF member country typically runs its own synoptic-scale forecast for the shorter ranges of 5 days or less, separate from the IFS, with smaller time intervals (examples include the French ARPEGE, British Unified Model and German GME/ICON).
In contrast to the GEM/GDPS (which is copyrighted but freely licensed) and the GFS (which is public domain), the ECMWF's proprietary data and forecasts are heavily restricted and require a licence for most output. A limited amount of the IFS's output is released freely to the public and licensed under a Creative Commons licence that prohibits commercial usage or derivative works.
I think that Mass's point is that the US could be leading the world in this area, with much better forecasts for both large scale regional events like hurricanes, and also smaller scale but still important local events like thunderstorms and tornados. We are capable of doing much better than we currently are.
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