Here are questions to ponder at some time when the definitive data are available:
What was the fatality/injury rate among those who elected to stay on the keys during Irma? How does that compare with those who evacuated?
So far, I have not seen anything about large numbers of fatalities among those who remained, nor, for that matter, anything about incidents among the evacuees. Indeed, the number of fatalities (somewhere in the mid-50s) seems quite low considering the population at risk in this storm.
Presumably one would leave because remaining would expose one to a significant chance of dying. If that is not the case, there is a significant advantage to sheltering in place - nothing works like home field advantage...
This is always hard to say as the group that stays has a very different make up than those who choose to leave. So you cannot compare the different groups directly.
Also there is always a discussion on how do those who die, would have faired differently if they where not there. How did staying effected them? And would they have died regardlessly?
A different example that demonstrates that issue are heatwaves; heatwaves can cause an increase of premature death among older people, but if you look at a year average, these increase are often not visible. Which kind of indicates that it takes out people earlier, but those people where likely to have died soon anyways.
Also the reason to leave might not to be avoid death, but also has a lot to do with comfort. Nobody want to stay in misery.
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