The only partially reliabilty in EQ forecasting is to read the Lost Pets section of a local newspaper everyday and count the number of ads. When the number of ads dramatically increase, one may expect an EQ within 72 hrs. The more dramatic the increase in ads, the stronger the EQ will be.
This was all figured out by Jim Berkley (sp?). A Geologist with the Orange County geological office. He's retired now but I think he wrote a book or two on the subject.
Unfortunately, theories that earthquakes can be predicted based on animal behavior have not panned out when subjected to cold, hard, statistical analysis. Despite decades of research, other attempts at earthquake prediction using other methods have also not panned out.
At the moment, the best that can been done is to say that a given fault segment is likely to rupture at some point in the future, and to provide some very loosely constrained numbers on how frequently that segment has ruptured in the past.
For a good readable discussion of the history of attempts at earthquake prediction, and some thoughts on whether we will or will not ever be able to predict earthquakes, I recommend Susan Hough's book
Predicting the Unpredictable: The Tumultuous Science of Earthquake Prediction. Susan Hough is a seismologist at the United States Geological Survey in Pasadena, California, and scientist in charge of the office.
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