At least in this area, NOAA operates on the Chicken Little rule. They issue warnings for winter weather advisories when they call for an inch or two of snow in the winter. We used to get six inches plus several times a winter.

I've seen too many episodes of weather forecast says snow. Temps over the last week say IF it snows it won't lay (ground is too warm). Eventually you get to where you look at their map, apply 47 years of local experience, and forecast it yourself.