But for that you need hard facts and very little unsupported supposition.
As you suggest, that is a luxury we almost never have; hence the importance of being circumspect in what we post.
There is a dangerous temptation to post, from the comfort of my armchair, words suggesting that other people are less wise and capable than myself. I find that a little time "out in the weeds" cures me of this tendency with rapid, ruthless, and humbling efficiency. "There, but for the grace of God, go I."