From what I understand, the trail we'll be on involves a significant elevation change, from about 750 feet to 2500 feet within the first 3.5 miles, and elevation further increases up to 3000 feet before the 6 mile mark. I'm not sure if that will be good or bad for a poncho. Heck, I'm really hoping we won't have to use it at all, but 3 days on the trail in April it's a good bet we probably will.
Aside from wind, a point that AKSAR correctly makes, another variable that affects the utility of a poncho is the amount of trail side brush you will encounter. A brushy trail makes a poncho rather problematical - not that brush is enjoyable in any kind of rain gear. One of the best things about a poncho is its versatility - ground cloth, shelter, rain gear, etc. I have used them for years and its just that they are better in some situations than in others.
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