Originally Posted By: Pete
A LOT depends on the size of the quake. Most geologists seem to expect a quake of mag. 7.5-8 for the San Andreas. That expectation is built on the type of fault structure for the San Andreas. HOWEVER, there is new data showing that faults like the San Andreas can liberate a lot more energy. Therefore, a quake with magnitude 8-9 is not impossible.
Would you care to share the data that the San Andreas could generate a M 9 quake?
Originally Posted By: Pete
1. Human Nature. It can be our best friend and our biggest enemy. Some people will cooperate and pitch in to help. But others have armed themselves, and are prepared to shoot anyone who tries to "take their stuff". That is the reality. I think that human nature will be a real problem after the San Andreas quake.
Ditto what hikermor and Dagny said. While there would no doubt be some antisocial behavior, past experience suggests it would be unlikely to be on the scale you suggest. Amanda Ripley's book The Unthinkable is a good primer on actual human behavior in disasters.

Originally Posted By: Pete
2. FIRES - probably the biggest risk to LA are large-scale fires after a quake.
I think most experts agree on that. The ShakeOut Scenario lists fires as a major concern.

Originally Posted By: Pete
3. Lack of WATER ....... One thing is absolutely certain - it is PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for the US Government and the military to get enough water to these people in a short amount of time. I have done the math - it just cannot be done.
Would you care to share your math?

I don't think anyone would argue that a M 7-8 quake would be a major disaster, with extensive loss of life. However, I think one should keep assumptions realistic.
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