I haven't seen the movie.

A LOT depends on the size of the quake. Most geologists seem to expect a quake of mag. 7.5-8 for the San Andreas. That expectation is built on the type of fault structure for the San Andreas. HOWEVER, there is new data showing that faults like the San Andreas can liberate a lot more energy. Therefore, a quake with magnitude 8-9 is not impossible. If an event happens with that magnitude, the damage in LA will be pretty enormous. Nothing is built to withstand that kind of earthquake.

My own feelings are that the biggest dangers AFTER a San Andreas quake com from three sources:

1. Human Nature. It can be our best friend and our biggest enemy. Some people will cooperate and pitch in to help. But others have armed themselves, and are prepared to shoot anyone who tries to "take their stuff". That is the reality. I think that human nature will be a real problem after the San Andreas quake.

2. FIRES - probably the biggest risk to LA are large-scale fires after a quake. The city now has many neighborhoods that are high density. It only takes one ignition source, and a whole neighborhood is gone. Water sources are few and far between. Fire departments might not have any water at all, after pipelines are broken. I think that fires will be responsible for most of the damage and the loss of life after the San Andreas quake. In a worst-case scenario, there is a risk of a real "firestorm" in the LA Basin. If something like that happens - the loss of life will be horrendous.

3. Lack of WATER - California is very dry. The problem is getting much worse now because of water restrictions, due to the ongoing drought in the State. This is causing a lot of gardens, trees, shrubs, and vegetation areas to become serious fire risks. On top of that, there are FEW natural water sources in the LA area. But there are MILLIONS of people living there, and very few homes have enough water to last more than 2-3 days. I expect that after 3-4 days (post-quake), the city of LA will go into a critical state because so many people are thirsty, and literally dying from dehydration. That is the time when there will be riots, and people shooting each other. One thing is absolutely certain - it is PHYSICALLY IMPOSSIBLE for the US Government and the military to get enough water to these people in a short amount of time. I have done the math - it just cannot be done. I'm not saying that people shouldn't try, but the scope of the problem is enormous.

Californians have no "basis for comparison". People have lived through the Sylmar and Northridge quakes. But those were just local city earthquakes. Nobody has experienced a major quake that starts large fires, cuts off all freeways, destroys the major water pipelines and aqueducts, and damages all tall buildings.

It is an UNKNOWN ... as to how people will react to what happens. A lot depends on the size of the quake. And on human nature.

Pete


Edited by Pete (06/15/15 02:31 PM)