A death is a death regardless of how a person dies or their age. Given that Malaria kills over 1/2 million people per year, it is far more deadly then all Ebola outbreaks combined.

The preface of the book specifically mentions that it occurs contemporaneously in 2014 along with the largest Ebola outbreak in African history.



My technical background/work and hobby/interests is in big data analysis, statistics and computer modelling. Past and recent history in this field is replete with many, many results that can be wrong as computer modelling is not an exact science and not without its limitations as noted below. Have you actually read the full CDC report?

Abstract and Conclusion section:
The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented in this report become very unlikely.

Limitations section outlines on how modelling can be limited...and taken out of context by the media and general public who do not understand the report. The media as proven with this report, extracts the juicy 1.4 million number instead of reporting the above wording in the Abstract section. It goes without saying that the media will conveniently report the more sensationalistic numbers.

The findings in this report are subject to at least five limitations. First, extrapolating current trends in increase of cases to forecast all future cases might not be appropriate. Underlying factors such as a spontaneous change in contacts with ill persons or burial practices or substantial changes in movement within countries or across borders could alter future growth patterns. Therefore, limiting model-calculated projections to shorter durations such as 3 months might be more appropriate. Second, assuming that this epidemic has similar epidemiologic parameters to previous outbreaks (e.g., incubation and infectiousness periods) might not be accurate, although anecdotal evidence to date has not indicated otherwise. Third, reliance on expert opinion to estimate a correction factor regarding number of beds in use might not account sufficiently for factors such as patients being turned away from full ETUs. Fourth, the correction factor could change substantially over time. Notable regional differences in underreporting might mean that using one correction factor across an entire country is inappropriate. Finally, the illustrative scenario does not consider the logistics needed to increase the percentages of patients who are receiving care in an ETU or at home or in a community setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed).

In my own conclusion, is Ebola a dangerous disease? Yes it is but not nearly as deadly as the vast majority of people in the world die from a much higher percentage of diseases and medical conditions that are listed here.