personally, I think your chances of bugging out of NYC approach zero. You would need to leave well before the problem hit and you will probably not have the information necessary to make an informed decision in time. God will not be waking you up one day with the message that today is the day to get out of Dodge.

better to prepare to bug in. NYC has a fairly decent emergency system. it is not perfect but short of a nuke strike you are probably going to be OK.

having said that the flooding that happened did have seriously negative affects on some people there. But it was a relative few. you might want to make some assessments of just what worst case scenarios might happen and determine how you would deal with them.

if you have kids you are probably screwed anyway. getting across town to get them out of school and to some kind of safety will be a nightmare.