Agree. If this were a real threat I'd expect gold and oil to be going up. Maybe it's because mid-east wars are getting old, but oil and gold are down -- at least they're down today. Relative to 10 years ago they're both way up but there's no panic to buy them today.

I'm still where I was on my first post -- not going to happen -- and I could still be wrong because the one thing the past few years have taught me is that people lie. Generally, the market does not lie and will normally get it right.