Commodities trading has a lot to do with food production, the types of food grown, etc. As an example, a year or so ago in China during a bad garlic harvest, entrepreneurs were buying tons of garlic, storing it in warehouses until the price rose to make a significant return. This of course created more volatility, driving prices even higher. So I would think its very difficult to tell the difference between actual food shortage vs. speculation and politics. Food may cost more than people can afford, but higher cost does not automatically equal scarcity. IMO, the issue is affordability, not shortage.