I gather the phrase "Black Swan" refers to events unimagined or given no credence by the general populace.

"...black swans: calamities from out of the blue, terrible and strange."


For those oblivious to the notion of preparedness, the power outage caused by a tree falling on a local power line could be that individual's Black Swan. Or the legions this winter caught for hours in massive traffic jams during snowstorms.

With 9/11 fading in the rearview, I count many of my friends and colleagues among those who've given little or no thought in years, or ever, to the possibility of a mass event impacting their everyday existence.

People hear that something only happens every 300 years or 1000 years and conclude it's not going to happen in their lifetimes and so they put it out of mind and do nothing to prepare.

I'm absolutely certain that DC will be hit by some significant terrorist attack, someday. Yet I wake up every morning and assume it won't happen today. Certainly not in the next hour. Otherwise I'd run my car up to the gas station right now and top off the tank (currently at 3/4).

I'm trying to light a fire (so to speak) under some friends and family in the PNW with, at best, minimal effect.

So they've got this Black Swan article in their inboxes....