Originally Posted By: Dagny

> big snip<
[i]Bystanders miles away would witness a 100-mph fireball shooting five miles into the sky. Sun-surface heat, hyperexplosive pressures and 900-mph winds would level buildings for half a mile. Between 50,000 and 100,000 people would vanish in smoke and flame.

Flash-blind drivers 10 miles away would crash, blocking evacuation routes. [i]Fallout would rain down for hundreds of miles, according to the White House's Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation,posted on the Internet in June.



I recommend that everyone read that pamphlet from about page 19 on to see what the government really projects instead of hysteria from a local reporter. The government does expect a blinding flash of light from a nuke, but they expect the blindness to last all of 30 minutes if it's night and the pupils are fully dilated. (Oh, and it's up to 15 miles away at night.) And the half-mile severe damage zone won't be totally leveled - because of blockage by buildings, some will survive. It's a complicated calculus based on explosion altitude, building congestion, and zoning (yes, zoning - buildings with good construction provide breaks in the damage).

And the fallout is a problem that's mitigated by the passage of time, as I noted in my original post. As others have noted, I'm fully expectant that the hordes would try to evacuate; I also expect that other hordes would fight off the carriers of radiation, and we'd have a fight between people trying to get out and others trying to stop them (same in any other mass-casualty event like disease or chemical disaster).

My plan remains staying and sheltering in place, with some flexibility as I try to stay upwind, upstream, uphill from whatever contamination is being spread around.


Edited by philip (12/17/10 09:34 PM)