The problem with hurricane predictions is whether it's bad or not doesn't depend on the hurricane but where it hits land - and then that matters to within a few miles.
To a homeowner that's true, but not at all to other groups.
FEMA and the electric utility groups would benefit greatly from accurate 6+ months estimates in terms of resource & manpower needs planning. Dates & places would be nice of course, but merely being able to budget, hire in the spring, etc is a big win even if they don't know precisely where or when hurricanes will make landfall.
It's those groups that I bet are funding the hurricane season prediction research, because if it got good enough it would be really useful to them.
It's probably impossible to predict time & place 6+ months ahead since the processes are "chaotic" in a technical sense. A scientific paper with one of my favorite titles ever nails it: "Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?"
Previous Topic
Index
