Live along the gulf coast, east coast or Florida long enough and your going to get hit by a hurricane. Events are independent. Every year the odds that that year is the good/bad resets. Nine years at 90% doesn't mean tenth year is a sure thing. Odds of 90% approaches an exact 9 out of 10 only with an infinite string of events.

Bottom line is that the predictions are not wrong. They are just statistics and subject to the limitations of statistical methods. We may be being protected for a time by El Nino. Keep your powder dry.