The WSJ today has some amusing reminders that history shows what lousy predictors of the future we are, in terms of technology. It's also worth reading for the recounting of Arthur C. Clarke's uncanny predictions:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB30001424052748704039704574616401913653862.htmlCharles Duell, commissioner for the U.S. Patent Office, said in 1899: "Everything that can be invented has already been invented."
"The world potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at most," IBM executives to the eventual founders of Xerox, 1959.
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home," Ken Olsen, founder of mainframe-producer Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.
"No one will need more than 637 kb of memory for a personal computer—640K ought to be enough for anybody," Bill Gates, Microsoft, 1981.
"Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput," Sir Alan Sugar, British entrepreneur, 2005.
And here's a sharp observation from someone I've never heard of:
"The best way to predict the future is to invent it."
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