After following the this for a while here is my take on things. This is very threat dependent and here in the midwest some threats are very low order of probability and/or they will make the choice for you (i.e. you won't have a home to stay in). I have a son with some special needs (dietary and medical) so plan to bail out early in nearly any scenario where running makes sense.

I think Sue did a great job identifying most the basic threats so I'll "borrow" them.


Wildfire or firestorm - Not very likely but if we ever did have a (really, really) old fashioned prairie fire I would be leaving very early. Dried crops (corn,wheat, soybeans) burn amazingly fast.

Flooding - been there, done that, no need to evacuate even at amazing record high flood levels. Some challenges with maintaining electrical service and city water but we are well stocked up and there was plenty of bottled water around even during the flood.

Tsunamis - If any even threaten my house we will have much bigger problems here in the USA.

Volcano / Seismic Event - Really Low Probability here - the only thing sort of close is the New Madrid fault but even that is a long way off. Worst case is the Yellowstone Caldera goes boom. We are outside of the historical ash zone for that but the civil disruption from that event would be huge.

Nuclear, radiological and chemical accidents - Some thing to consider, lots of rail transport through the area plus an interstate along with a semi-nearby Nuclear power plant. Basic plan - grab the wife, kids and pets and run like mad. If we get any advanced warning we will be among the first out.

Snow, ice and winter storms - Around here that just defines winter. Might consider bailing out if these lead to long term (more than a couple of days) loss of power/utilities.

Thunderstorms / lightning /tornadoes - Part of what we call weather around here. Stay indoors as much as possible during severe weather. Can't run from Tornadoes, just hunker down in the basement. If you are unlucky you will be leaving the house, or what ever is left of it (hopefully on foot after the tornado passes by ).

Hurricanes - Similar to Tsunami - if it gets this far inland we have bigger things to worry about.

Heatwave - Serious concern in the midwest, if we start losing power or the A/C quits we may need to consider bailing out. Needs additional thought on where to run to since effects are probably wide spread and loss of electric will impact ability to get gas for cars/generators.

Landslides and mudflows - Very unlikely but if predicted in the vicinity of my house I would probably be an early evacuator.

Terrorism - Unfortunately this one is very complex. If small / isolated event (no nuc's, no bugs, no chemicals) and not directly threatening the neighborhood I would probably stay. Otherwise run like mad since even friendly fire smarts.

- Eric