Danger: Flood. Sailboat could be swept away and sunk. Edit: Utilities could be disrupted or supplies unavailable beyond bug-in capability.

Data to monitor:

1.Tide height and direction from tide tables.
2.Expected spring runoff river crests from media and internet.
3.Levee failure location announcements on media and internet.
4.Location of levee failures on Delta map.
5.Observed sudden change in water height or flow direction contrary to tide tables.

Known limitations:

1.Boat sails or motors no faster than 10 mph in the best of conditions.
2.Road out crosses two islands below sea level and one bridge between islands.
3.Freeway is about 4 miles away and is elevated.
4.Levee road at marina is elevated.
5.Government flood defense calls for blocking freeway underpass to contain [and incidentally heighten] flood water from close levee failure, which would block the road across the last island between the boat and the elevated freeway.

Bug-in preparations of note during Spring:

1.Extra mooring ropes and boat bumpers between boat and marina dock.
2.Extra fresh supplies in boat.

Bug-out?

1.By car if levee failure is close, but not located to cut off evacuation road.
2.By car if levee failure threatens to sweep away marina dock.
3.By car if levee failure results in boat becoming uninhabitable somehow.
4.By boat if flood waters block access to freeway for time extended beyond supplies.
5.By boat if flood destroys nearby supply sources or renders them unreachable by car for a period of time that threatens re-supply.