I'm not seeing a lot of press on the swine flu and most of what I see is useless fear mongering.

Yes, the swine flu is still out there and moderately active in the southern hemisphere. The question is not if it will come back but when and how bad will it get.

Read: http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/08/swine_flu_this_fall_turbulence.php

Summary is, in rough terms, that if a flu outbreak starts late in the season the first year there is a good chance it comes back earlier and stronger the second. No guarantee but it seems like a reasonable assumption and one backed by real science.

It might be a good idea to start preparing now. The normal flu season is coming up fast and if this report is right the normal flu mix may show up with swine flu at the roughly same time with the swine flu taking off in a much more dramatic fashion than we saw last time.

It has to be pointed out that the numbers who die are likely to be relatively small. The 1918 flu only killed 2 or 3% in a day when oxygen was rarely used and respirators were even rarer. Medical science has advanced a bit since those days and survival is expected to be better.

Most major services, food delivery, garbage collection and power still worked and fuel got delivered. There was disruption and people died but society didn't fall apart. It frayed at the edges, and as usual the poor got the worse of it, but it limped along and didn't fall apart. While medical science has gotten better our supply system may have gotten more fragile with on-hand supplies smaller and run closer to the edge by using JIT, Just In Time, supply schedules.

The basics, food staples, soap, water and fuel are unlikely to run out for more than a day or two. A three day to one week supply is likely to serve you well. The odds of anyone starving, unless they have very special food requirements, are slim. Oatmeal, black beans, rice canned soups and canned meats are cheap, store well without special handling, and are cheap.

Some items, masks, gloves, hand sanitized will see a rush and short term shortages. Batteries, particularly the unusual ones like those that run some insulin pumps, may come up short and be only available in spurts. So stock up. Likewise if your dependent on certain drugs make sure you have a ample supply on hand. Thirty days supply on hand at a minimum is not, IMHO, excessive.