Originally Posted By: KG2V_was_kc2ixe
My BIG worry in NYC (besides being ground zero for 'man mad disasters') is what is called "The New York Bight Scenaro"

I know that NYC figures that if they are going to get hit with a cat III, they have to evacuate slightly more than 2.3 MILLION people, and I thing Nassau and Suffolk will be evacuating something like 1.5 million people at the same time. Given that there are exactly 8 bridges/tunnels off this island, and only 4 of them DON'T go to Manhattan...


Evacuating New York City, especially if it involves an evacuation of Long Island too, is a massive undertaking. I doubt it could be easily accomplished in two days.

Having left an NYC apt. in the not too distant past and living in a suburb, I've thought about potential large scale disasters. The two I fear most are a hurricane and a tsunami. The hurricane allows some time for preparation, even if it makes a relatively sudden change in direction. If a hurricane decided to proceed with it's eye comping up through the Narrows (the narrowest point between Brooklyn and Staten Island) would it allow enough time to evacuate the areas in danger, bsically all of Brookyln, almost if not all of Queens and Manhattan, as well as Staten Island and many other nearby areas? I doubt it. Evacuating Brooklyn itself would put and enormous strain on every mode of transportation out of Brooklyn, except for perhaps those heading east onto Long Island. The bridges to Manhattan and Staten Island would be overwelmed. Brookyn, at about 2.5 million people, has five times the population of New Orleans-pre Katrina. Queens has another 2.2 million, Manhattan about 1.6 million, the Bronx maybe 1.3 million and Staten Island a little under 500,000, about the same as NOLA-pre Katrina. Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island add probably another 2.3 or so million. There are a couple ferries leaving Long Island that do not require those who might be evacuating to go through NYC, but that would only allow ofr escape by a small number. A large scale disaster is probably going to leave a lot of New Yorkers unable to get onto land north of New York City.

A tsunami is possibly more devasting than a hurricane, if you believe some forecasts about Cumbre Vieja. It's a volcano on the island of La Palma, in the Canary Islands. Reportedly, half of the mountain IS GOING to slide into the Atlantic at some time. If it does it in small pieces over time, few worries for those of us in the U.S. If not, if it slides off into the Atlantic in one piece, the predictions say the U.S. East Coast is going to get hit with waves up to 200 feet high. The tsunami will hit in about 7 hours. There is simply no way most of Long Island and New York City can be evacuated. I will be fleeing my house in Connecticut as fast as I can, but I won't have to get too far to be more than 300 feet about sea level.

Other than scenarios invovling mega disasters, New York City is about as well prepared as possible. The City has put a lot of effort into preparing. When anything happens, small scale, the City is on it right away. The chances of something getting amplified due to in action are slim. The chances the people in the City's bureaucracy have not considered a possible scenario are probably slimmer. That and the actions of New Yorkers overall provide a level of comfort that I could not imagine elsewhere. During the blackout of 2003, New Yorkers dealt with it as well as anyone could ever expect. The took to the bars and socialized as far as I could see, and I was with them. And, I will never forget the things I saw walking out of downtown Manhattan late in the afternoon of 9/11 and the next few days. It was a city of stunned and mourning, but proud people seeking to help and be helpful.