> Swine flu hasn't gone away. Any more than bird flue has. It doesn't make
> the news much lately but bird flu is still out there.

Let me start by saying I'm not going to argue with you - we're each entitled to our judgments on these matters, and I have no argument with your judgment.

I have a different judgment, however. Let me point out that we don't hear much about bird flu any more for a reason. We don't hear about SARS,either -- remember the SARS panic?

Margaret Chan is the head of WHO; she raised the pandemic threat alert to 5 because of swine flu and said, "All of humanity is under threat." She threatened to raise it to 6. All the all-news channels were carrying morbid, panic-causing stories laden with death and doom.

My take on all this, and it's just my judgment, is that there are thousands of people who make money off dire predictions: news stations get more viewers when they show stories where people say all of humanity is under threat; public officials get more attention and more tax money when they make dire predictions; experts get more air time when they chime in and say we're all going to die, then they get hired for more consultations; all the religions get more attendance and more money when they can assure us that the end is near; environmentalists can get more attention and more money by assuring is this is the result of factory farming and the death of earth; animal rights groups get more attention and money when they blame unethical treatment of the poor pigs by factory farmers. And on and on.

As a result, I tune it all out. I tuned out SARS, I tuned out bird flu, I tuned out swine flu. And as the optimist who fell off the Empire State Building said on his way down - Well, I'm alright so far.

I'm still willing to bet I'll be in an earthquake before I'm in some plague pandemic. And I'm willing to bet my shelter in place gear for the quake will suffice for a pandemic if I'm proven wrong.

My judgment -- and I emphasize it's just my judgment -- is that it's all fear-mongering by people who profit from mongering fear. Remember the end of the world with Y2K? People bought all sorts of stuff to survive the end of the world as we know it. Think of all those people now buying guns and ammo because PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER.'s going to outlaw guns. Personally, I'm not buying any of it (and I have to say that saved me some money).

I don't argue with those who disagree, because it's a judgment call. As I said, I'm in a group that did a drill for distribution of Cipro in response to a possible anthrax attack. I'm willing to consider worst case scenarios, but in the end I dismiss swine flu as coming back and killing us all - I've heard too much hype to take all the panic-inducing rhetoric seriously. All we have to fear is fear itself, as I heard somewhere.

The odds are I won't get flu this year. If I do get the flu, the odds are I'll be sick for a week and wish I was dead, but then I'll feel all better again just like always. I'm with Damon Runyon: "It may be that the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong - but that's the way to bet."