Quote:
Honestly, I think this swine flu is WAY overblown. WHO reports 200-300,000 deaths a year from flu, mostly the infirm (elderly, young children, compromised immune systems). Its good to have a plan, for sure-but, I think this is a chicken
little story myself.


It may seem that way now, sort of the calm before the storm. The WHO is an extremely conservative organisation and statements such as 'All of humanity under threat' should make everyone prepare for the worst.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-...-WHO-warns.html

I have now concluded that that the WHO now have a reasonably good idea of the mortality rate, this being the critical number in their projected modelling for the mass casualty projections, from the initial Mexico outbreak.


Example USA - Population 300 Million. Attack Rate (first wave, worst case scenario) 50% of populus infected = Numbers of potentiall infections = 150 Million

Now multiply the Number of infections by the mortality rate

1% mortality = 1.5 Million deaths
2% mortality = 3 Million deaths

etc, etc

10% mortality = 15 Million deaths

All these deaths occurring within a 3-4 (probably a little longer within the US due to greater geographical dispersion) month period starting now.

As for Governmental planning the UK has the best plan in the world and the means to implement its plan because of a unified National Health Service management system. By reading carefully through this document you soon begin to realise there is no plan except to just suck it up and see and hope for the best.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/19_10_05_bird_flu.pdf

Sometimes survival is just means being a head of the game before the mass panic ensues.