I have to admit that I'm rather surprised with how quickly this situation has changed just over the weekend. It's one thing for TV news to repeat this story to death, which we all expect these days, but going from quick reports in the news of isolated cases one day to constant news coverage, and finally to "US declares health emergency" the next day is unusual.

I hope people realize that the declaration of a health emergency (at least this one in the US) is primarily a procedural thing at this stage, like how the governor of a state declares an area to be a disaster zone so that various emergency funding and resources can begin to be mobilized, and not because the situation is critically dangerous, like if Homeland Security's terror alert were raised to red.

Looking at the empty streets of Mexico City now, I can only think how unlucky a blow to business it will be here in the US if people here stay home, even if this swine flu episode fizzles relatively quickly. Malls, retail districts, bars and restaurants, sporting teams, public transit systems--they could all take a really big financial hit that could send many businesses under, considering the precarious situation that many businesses are already in. We're just ramping up and heading towards the busy summer season, so depending on how this situation develops, it could be a bad summer for a lot of industries or countries.

I'm not particularly worried about the disease itself at this moment since we're still so early in the process and there are still so many questions, but I do worry about the economic impact since so many of us are already dancing on thin ice.