One of those emergency tarp blankets is a good idea. I'll probably steal one out of my FAK when I leave. As for a closed cell pad, I realized my Thermarest was too cold in practice.
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One of my big wonders is if I need my tent. After all, if I'm not camping, then why bring it? And if a plane goes down, then yeah, I probably should stay with/in it. This was the thought behind the USGI poncho and liner - something I could use as a lean-to if need be, or a wearable insulating layer. I'd really like the "woobie" from Kifaru, but it's a ridiculous price.
Thermarest does make a decent winter one, ProLite 3 is what I use, but, it's still not really as good IMHO as a nice closed cell pad. (It is a little cushier though!)
As far as a tent, I am thinking like you are, that this is going to be a survival deal, not a planned camping trip. You can actually make a pretty comfortable shelter with a few things like a decent poncho, bivvy bag, couple trash bags, etc. Here's something I slept under a couple times with just what was in my daypack to show the guys that you could make yourself comfortable with just a few basics: (We had a pretty good rain one night too.)
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