Hi, new to the forum, wondering if we could talk a bit more in detail and more critically about a few aspects of this incident. Please forgive me (and correct me) if this isn’t what the forum is for.

Overall, it sounds like mostly good news, but it seems to me that several areas could have been improved on. True, we got off in this case with no fatalities and only a limited number of injuries (all hypothermia cases). However, in terms of future planning both for the community and for ourselves as potential passengers, I think we need to view the events in terms of likely outcomes if this accident were repeated 100 times. In that case, we might be looking at an average of 10-25 deaths and 50-100 total casualties per incident – in other words, a serious accident. How could those numbers be reduced?

I’m no expert, but several possible areas occur to me. First, I’d like to hear more discussion about just how big a part pilot skill played here. Most people seem to be making the pilot out to be a hero, and that’s fine from a news-talking-point view, but if true, then it implies that most other pilots would not have done as well. Are we saying that 99% of pilots would have had a bad landing? 75%? 50%? Given the importance of water-ditching options as a means of averting fatalities, it seems to me that we should expect something like a 90% + success ratio here – is that unreasonable?

Second, what’s the rule (if any) on raft-capacity-to-passenger ratios? In other words, why are all those people standing on the wings and getting hypothermic? The NYTimes article says people on the wings were standing up to their waists or deeper while waiting to get rescued, and one guy said he couldn’t feel his legs when he was pulled aboard a boat. It also says some passengers made comments about “it’s like the Titanic, not enough boats for all.” Given the small space and weight of inflatable craft, should airlines be required to carry enough for all?

Third, passengers reported the wings to be slippery and several people slipped off and fell into the water. Since the wings seem to be an integral part of escape plans, shouldn’t they have a no-slip surface in places?

Fourth, what are the mechanics of transferring from a sinking plane to a ferry boat? The NYT article says at least some of the people had to jump into the water and swim to the rescue boats. Are ferry boats easy to enter from water level? How about from a raft? If I find myself in that situation, waist deep on the slippery wing with a rescue boat 10 feet off, am I better off being one of the first to swim to the boat, or waiting where I am on the wing?

Sorry to be so long winded on my first post, but I suspect there is a lot of knowledge here that hasn’t posted yet, and I’m just trying to draw it out for my future benefit.