>>Sorry, I remain skeptical. Just because some scientist or quasi-scientist says something does not make it so, and
>>just because something winds up in print does not make it so. Scientists haven't even discovered all species in the
>>ocean yet, and the're going to presume to count them?

Nobody said anything about counting them. If I see a satellite photograph of the Amazon rainforest, and 10 percent of it is on fire, I don’t need to count every last tree to know that 10 percent of the forest is on fire. We don’t need to count them, or even estimate the numbers (although that can be done and probably has been) to know that there are dramatically fewer of them now than there were 30 or 40 years ago.

>>People invent, twist, or selectively quote figures all of the time in order to make their favorite point.

“After all, facts are facts, and although we may quote one to another with a chuckle the words of the Wise Statesman, 'Lies--damned lies--and statistics,' still there are some easy figures the simplest must understand, and the astutest cannot wriggle out of."
Leonard Henry (later Baron) Courtney (First recorded instance of the expression "lies, damned lies, and statistics")

>>Just watch the news or read the papers. Who knows what their reasons are? Some are ignorant.

You said it, not me <img src="images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

>>As big as the earth is, I find it difficult to believe that we have lost 90% of the ocean's big fish. Don't they breed anymore?

Not if they’re extinct.

>> Something that should be considered before we all go off the deep end is that something in the fishes environment may have changed, and the entire school has simply moved.

We’re not talking about a school, we’re talking about the Grand Banks of Newfoundland and the Flemish Cap.

>>The school could have been driven from one area to another, or simply attracted from one area to another.

If you found the state of California deserted, would you seriously consider the possibility that everyone has just decided to move to the Mojave Desert? I’m sure the Mojave Desert is a lovely place, but it simply couldn’t begin to support the entire population of California. 100 square miles of fish don’t simply decide to leave their feeding grounds; what would they live on?

>>The questions are what has happened, and why.

I’d venture a guess that it has something to do with a two-legged creature that can’t take a hint. <img src="images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

>>It is possible that over time, the school has learned that certain sounds signal danger, such as the sounds of the
>>engines of the fishing boats or other equipment. That is not as far-fetched as it may seem.

Sorry, but yes it is. As I said, we’re not talking about a single school of fish, we’re talking about hundreds or thousands of square miles of fish. Fish gotta eat something, so they normally congregate where the food supplies are plentiful – that’s why the Grand Banks were such lucrative fishing grounds. If they left, where would they go?

>>It is possible that due to volcanic action, landslides, weather, etc, that the underwater currents have changed enough, even temporarily, to motivate the fish to go elsewhere.

Well, there’s this thing called the Gulf Stream. And there’s this other thing called the Labrador Current. And as far as I know, they’re big and obvious and fairly well understood, and they’re still there. Where they’ve always been.

>>It is possible that normal currents are carrying bacteria or chemicals from dumped garbage and the area usually
>>frequented by the school is now disagreeable or hostile, causing them to hunt for more favorable areas.

Like the Mojave Desert, maybe? <img src="images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />

>>It is also possible that there have been changes in water temperatures, the speed or temperature of underwater
>>currents, the acidity or salinity of the water, its ability to hold oxygen, etc.

Okay, this argument boils down to “It might be global warming and not overfishing”. But I’m of the firm belief that we should do something about both.

>>Assuming that the problem exists at all,

Ask the people of Newfoundland if the problem exists at all.

>>I doubt very seriously that this is the first time that this has happened,

No, I believe something like it happened about 65 million years ago.

>>and I think that it will correct itself over time.

Well, if you mean that mankind will be wiped out and replaced by another dominant species, then I agree it will probably correct itself over time. I’m not sure that’s what you meant though.

>>Here is something to consider. Take a look at gas prices. Someone in the Middle East can just belch, or hint at an >>oil shortage, and the next day we pay 10 cents more per gallon.

I wasn’t aware there was an international fish cartel.

>>The prices of groceries respond pretty fast to shortages, too. Has anyone noticed the massive increase in the price of fish that would indicate that we are eating the last 10% of the large fish in the entire world? Neither have I.

Have you looked at the unemployment rate in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland lately? I have, and it ain’t pretty.

Fishing and oil have very different pricing models. So do fishing and farming, for that matter. If a farmer’s crop fails because of drought, he can’t just move to a different section of the prairie and farm some more to make up the shortfall, nor can he simply stay out and farm longer hours. A fishing boat can, up to a point. They’re paid by what they bring in. If they’ve been out for six weeks and they haven’t brought in their quota, then they can stay out another six weeks, or move to another fishing ground. They work harder, they work longer hours, they take more risks, but they get paid the same – so, up to a point, it wouldn’t surprise me if the price of fish stays the same.

Have you read Sebastian Junger’s book, The Perfect Storm? He makes an interesting statement about the exponential curve. I won’t discuss the mathematics of it, but the gist of it is that, when a ship is getting into trouble at sea, the line between “I think we might be in trouble” and “Holy [censored] we’re going down” can be razor-fine. I think there are too many people who are sticking their heads in the sand and ignoring the warning signs.