Great post, and very sobering. A pandemic is definitely a poop sandwich: no matter how you take a bite, it's going to be unpleasant.

Another factor to consider is how easily our healthcare system can be overwhelmed by a large scale public health disaster. It doesn't take long to run out of beds, and I can tell you with certainty that a non-trivial percentage of healthcare workers are not going to show up for work during a pandemic.