Not to beat a dead horse, but as I wake up this morning, in Florida, and see a record-setting 884mb Category 5 storm headed our way, I can’t help but wonder if FEMA can get it right this time. Still, I have great faith in Jeb Bush (the governor) and the local officials. After last year, they know the drill, and I think they acquitted themselves well in that busy hurricane season.

In the meantime, I’ve asked my wife if she can convince my stubborn-as-a-mule, elderly mother to leave the Clearwater/St. Pete area if Wilma decides to target that part of the west coast instead of Southwest FL. My mother would probably never leave because my sister won’t leave, but then my sister can’t leave. She’s a 911 operator for Pinellas County (the county which contains Clearwater and St. Petersburg).

On a side note, I sent my mother a hurricane package earlier this year that included a AA battery powered radio that picks up TV bands (discussed in an earlier thread). As someone rightly pointed out in that thread, digital TV signals will eventually make such radios useless, and that appears to be the case in early 2009 (e.g., http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9697337/ ). Regardless, I still think radios with a TV band are the only truly useful emergency radios for the average Joe.

Tampa Bay Worst-Case Scenario

Some portions are supposably interactive.

I got flamed on fark.com for posting what I already knew, before that link was posted.

In my opinion, after living their for 12 years and listening to the police and fire departments on the scanner(which your sister dispatches the FD's), getting a copy of the Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan (albeit 10 years ago), it looks like they know exactly what they are expecting.

The problem is they have to hope that the public cooperates. A number of hospitals their will do "vertical" evacuations. They have great color coded maps whose evacuation levels correspond to the SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surge from Hurricanes) expected surge. So, Level "A" (purple), covers the maximum expected (key word: expected) storm surge for a Category 1 hurricane.

If you mother can leave TODAY, it would be better, otherwise, if she's not in an evacuation zone, please, don't have her leave. Assuming a high category 4, Pinellas County Evacuation Zones and Expected evacuating population there will be 647,190 people trying to leave Pinellas. It takes 4 days (see the interactive one above) to completely evacuate Pinellas. Pinellas has 3 bridges to the east (as I'm sure you know). They close at 40mph. I would hope that the I-275 is completely shutdown at I-75 in Manatee, and used for "southbound" to I-75. Pinellas doesn't need Manatee traffic going through. It has been stated elsewhere in the news that I-75 cannot be contraflowed. I-4 can. However, you will have the combined evacuating populations of Pinellas, Manatee and Hillsborough counties attempting to leave the Tampa Bay area on I-4. Ever seen it during rush hour? Some people on fark.com were trying to tell me about these "staged evacuations". People are like cats. Can you heard cats?

If anyone thinks it might hit Tampa Bay, and you live in Pinellas, leave today or tomorrow. Friday might be too late.

If I was in South Florida right now, I would be filling up my gas tank today. With short gas supplies, it is probably not a good idea to wait around to find out if you need to evacuate before you hit the gas station.

A vacation in sunny Georgia might be a good idea for this weekend.

Keep your eyes on the Weather Channel. Best wishes and best of luck.

topped off today thats everything gas, food bucket, supplies

Gloria and I are being deployed by the Red Cross to meet Wilma. We are now in NM, leaving for TX to pick up ECRV (Emergency Communications Response Vehicle) and then to an as yet un-announced staging area. Won't know details until storm gets closer to landfall.

From what we are hearing, this is a realllllly powerful storm.

I will try to send updates when possible. Probably in the campfire section.

Be safe. Perhaps I will see you there. Deployments are delayed right now as ARC re-orients for this, so we're on hold.

Tom