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#297647 - 11/25/20 11:49 PM Black Swans
hikermor Offline
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Registered: 08/26/06
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Loc: southern Cal
https://temblor.net/earthquake-insights/...hinkable-12155/

For all SHTF fans out there, here is a way to think about, and presumably plan for, future rare and improbable disasters. The article focuses on earthquakes, a subject of particular interest to those of us in EQ prone areas, but the process can be applied to other SHTF events as well (asteroid strikes, anyone?)
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#297648 - 11/25/20 11:58 PM Re: Black Swans [Re: hikermor]
Phaedrus Online   content
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Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 2842
Loc: Big Sky Country
Fascinating article! I'm struck by how the biggest obstacles to good planning are generally more psychological than technical. No one ever seems interesting in spending any money to avoid something that's not 99.9% certain within a very narrow time frame. The "Black Swan" event is so difficult to deal with because the low probability of an occurrence during any given year/decade/election cycle makes passing the buck an easy option.
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#297649 - 11/26/20 12:26 AM Re: Black Swans [Re: hikermor]
hikermor Offline
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Loc: southern Cal
Passing the buck?? Heavens, Phaedrus, who would ever do that?
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#297659 - 11/27/20 04:37 PM Re: Black Swans [Re: Phaedrus]
brandtb Offline
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Registered: 11/26/04
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Loc: S.E. Pennsylvania
Originally Posted By: Phaedrus
. . . .

The "Black Swan" event is so difficult to deal with because the low probability of an occurrence during any given year/decade/election cycle makes passing the buck an easy option.


From my reading the next 'somewhat predictable' major disaster to hit the U.S. (not counting man-made events such as nuclear war or engineered plagues) will be an earthquake in the Cascadia subduction zone. My advice on how to mitigate your damage if you live there: You can't. Move.
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#297661 - 11/27/20 06:48 PM Re: Black Swans [Re: hikermor]
hikermor Offline
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Registered: 08/26/06
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Loc: southern Cal
Along with movement primarily along the San Andreas Fault- same basic issue -the Pacific and North American plates are duking it out.

Earthquakes in general are typical Black Swan events. They are going to occur, not just along the West Coast, but nearly everywhere in the US - time and magnitude to be determined.

"Move" is easy to say, but difficult to impractical for many to carry out.

There is massive and expensive development of an EQ early warning system which will be of great benefit to many, especially those not near the epicenter.
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#297662 - 11/27/20 09:35 PM Re: Black Swans [Re: hikermor]
brandtb Offline
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Registered: 11/26/04
Posts: 419
Loc: S.E. Pennsylvania
Yeah, I get it. The fire stations will get a 20 second warning so they can open their doors before the power goes out. There will still be many thousands of people west of the interstate who die when the tsunami hits. 20 seconds is not a lot of time to get out of your house when the highways are jammed.

If you like working for Boeing or some internet company . . . well . . .

And by the way, the same for the San Andreas.


Edited by brandtb (11/27/20 09:37 PM)
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#297663 - 11/27/20 11:08 PM Re: Black Swans [Re: brandtb]
hikermor Offline
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As I understand it, the amount of time you get of the event depends upon your distance from the epicenter and nothing else. Individuals can subscribe to the system and be notified at the same time as the fire station. If you are at the epicenter, you are screwed but at a distance you may have many minutes to prepare, anything from the surgeon withdrawing his scalpel from the operating site to moving upstairs out of reach of the tsunami.

These days tsunami warnings can be issued hours in advance, say if you are in the Pacific Northwest and the quake is in the orient.

Lots depends upon your local topography. Our local harbor suffered about a million dollars in damage in the Fukashima quake, primarily to berthed boats, while the buildings at the harbor, five feet or so above sea level had few, if any, consequences. Life went on just fine.

OTOH, the 1812 quake, with an epicenter just off shore, devastated Santa Barbara, as did some subsequent tremors. Good building codes heelp in situations like this.

On the West Coast, we are in danger from EQ Black Swans, but we don't have to worry about hurricanes or tornadoes. Choose your hazard profile, make adjustments, and get on with what's important.
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#297664 - 11/28/20 12:55 AM Re: Black Swans [Re: hikermor]
Phaedrus Online   content
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Registered: 04/28/10
Posts: 2842
Loc: Big Sky Country
If a tsunami hits me everyone is screwed! grin I'm in Bozeman, Montana BTW. smirk
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#297668 - 11/28/20 07:16 PM Re: Black Swans [Re: hikermor]
Blast Offline
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My personal fear is New Madrid fault. This fault in Missouri produced the four biggest earthquakes in North America...and it's due to do another any time now. Imagine the issues if every bridge in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Mississippi collapsed?
-Blast
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#297669 - 11/28/20 10:20 PM Re: Black Swans [Re: hikermor]
hikermor Offline
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Loc: southern Cal
Hae the construction standards been eloped and changed through the years so that bridges,etc. in the region would be able to withstand the next big one?

That has been the approach around here and it has prven effective, although not perfect....
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