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#294747 - 01/30/20 08:47 PM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: Russ]
Ren Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 11/05/07
Posts: 245
However, there have been eight cases of human-to-human infection - in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the United States.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51318246

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#294749 - 01/30/20 11:59 PM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: jds]
Teslinhiker Offline
Veteran

Registered: 12/14/09
Posts: 1408
Loc: Cranbrook BC (Finally)
More perspective.


A deadly virus is spreading from state to state and has infected 15 million Americans so far.

(CNN)The novel coronavirus that's sickening thousands globally -- and at least five people in the US -- is inspiring countries to close their borders and Americans to buy up surgical masks quicker than major retailers can restock them.

There's another virus that has infected 15 million Americans across the country and killed more than 8,200 people this season alone. It's not a new pandemic -- it's influenza.

The 2019-2020 flu season is projected to be one of the worst in a decade, according to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. At least 140,000 people have been hospitalized with complications from the flu, and that number is predicted to climb as flu activity swirls.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/health/flu-deadly-virus-15-million-infected-trnd/index.html

_________________________
Earth and sky, woods and fields, lakes and rivers, the mountain and the sea, are excellent schoolmasters, and teach some of us more than we can ever learn from books.

John Lubbock

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#294751 - 01/31/20 01:15 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: jds]
Ren Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 11/05/07
Posts: 245
Flu is not effective at killing people.

8,200 / 15,000,000 is 0.054%.

nCoV current rate is a 1,000 times higher. More people are dying than recovering.

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#294752 - 01/31/20 02:18 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: jds]
chaosmagnet Offline
Sheriff
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/03/09
Posts: 3360
Loc: USA
National travel is part of my job. Iím flying home tomorrow. So far, Iím not seeing anything that will cause me to curtail my work travel. But Iím watching.

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#294754 - 01/31/20 03:09 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: Ren]
Teslinhiker Offline
Veteran

Registered: 12/14/09
Posts: 1408
Loc: Cranbrook BC (Finally)
Originally Posted By: Ren
Flu is not effective at killing people.

8,200 / 15,000,000 is 0.054%.

nCoV current rate is a 1,000 times higher. More people are dying than recovering.


No matter how you want to do the math, the flu is a bigger threat to almost any person in the USA or here in Canada for that matter. I would be far more concerned about getting the flu then the Coronavirus. And one thing about either virus - they don't care about the math and statistics and both can and will kill you dead when least expected.

Also, I rather heed the advice of Todd Ellerin, director of infectious diseases at Harvard Medical School:

In the US, the average person is at extremely low risk of catching this novel coronavirus. This winter, in fact, we are much more likely to get influenza B ó the flu ó than any other virus: one in 10 people have influenza each flu season. Itís still not too late to get a flu shot, an easy step toward avoiding the flu. If you do get the flu despite having gotten the vaccine, studies show that severe illness, hospitalization, ICU admission, and death are less likely to occur.

The bottom line

Given the current spread of this virus and the pace and complexity of international travel, the number of cases and deaths will likely to continue to climb. We should not panic, even though we are dealing with a serious and novel pathogen.


https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-new-coronavirus-what-we-do-and-dont-know-2020012518747
_________________________
Earth and sky, woods and fields, lakes and rivers, the mountain and the sea, are excellent schoolmasters, and teach some of us more than we can ever learn from books.

John Lubbock

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#294755 - 01/31/20 04:16 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: Ren]
EMPnotImplyNuclear Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 09/10/08
Posts: 371
Originally Posted By: Ren
Flu is not effective at killing people.

8,200 / 15,000,000 is 0.054%.

nCoV current rate is a 1,000 times higher. More people are dying than recovering.

Hi,
Who is your fact checker?

Redacted.

cnn.com: Currently, the case fatality rate for Wuhan virus is around 2% -- significantly smaller than SARS' 9.6% mortality rate. It's also smaller than Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) -- another type of coronavirus -- which has a case fatality rate of 35%.


Edited by chaosmagnet (01/31/20 02:40 PM)
Edit Reason: Tone

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#294759 - 01/31/20 11:33 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: EMPnotImplyNuclear]
Ren Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 11/05/07
Posts: 245
Redacted.

Source is WHO, CDC, ECDC (European CDC) collated by John's Hopkins University.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Total Deaths vs Total Recovered.


Edited by chaosmagnet (01/31/20 02:40 PM)

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#294761 - 01/31/20 12:58 PM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: EMPnotImplyNuclear]
Jeanette_Isabelle Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 2411
Loc: Somewhere in Florida
Deleted.


chaosmagnet


Edited by chaosmagnet (01/31/20 02:38 PM)
_________________________
ďTrust me, this is not gonna end well!Ē ó Pleakley, Lilo & Stitch

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#294762 - 01/31/20 11:25 PM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: jds]
Alan_Romania Offline

Addict

Registered: 06/29/05
Posts: 631
Loc: Arizona
This should be concerning, but not much more so that the Flu. The outbreak is classified as Worsening, but not significantly outside of Mainland China. It will get much worse in China, and we will likely see an increase of confirmed cases in the United States but with all the action that has been taken to isolate the outbreak in place the peak will be in the next two weeks and will drop off significantly after that. Take normal precautions as you would during flu season and you will reduce your risk of infection significantly.
_________________________
"Trust in God --and press-check. You cannot ignore danger and call it faith." -Duke

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#294763 - 02/01/20 12:35 AM Re: Coronavirus outbreak in China -- now spreading [Re: Alan_Romania]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5333
Loc: SOCAL
Good advice.

There is an article at: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early esti...mic predictions The key findings relates to the transmissivity of the virus. Any number over 1.0 indicates that the virus wonít go away on its own. The number in the article is estimated at 3.6 - 4.0; other numbers Iíve seen have been lower, 2.5 - 3.4. Both ranges are over 1.0 though which means nCoV wonít die off on its own.

Those numbers are necessarily estimated out of the infections in China, where it was allowed to run wild (for weeks) before any serious steps were evident. The human-to-human infection in the United States was between a husband and wife who apparently took no preventative measures. First human-to-human nCoV spread reported in US
Quote:
... Federal health officials and their colleagues in Illinois today reported the first instance of human-to-human novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) transmission in the United States, involving the husband of an earlier confirmed case in Illinois, marking the nation's sixth case. ...
... Patients had extended close contact
Ngozi Ezike, MD, director of the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) said the state's second patient is a Chicago resident who is the spouse of the state's first patient, a woman in her 60s who traveled to Wuhan and whose illness was announced on Jan 24. She said the couple's close contacts are under close monitoring and further investigation is under way.


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