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#293726 - 10/06/19 02:47 PM Earthquakes and Economic Downturns
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 6996
Loc: southern Cal
Just perusing the recent threads on potential economic "bumps in the road" and I thought of some of the similarities with earthquakes, a event that concerns me, being a SoCal resident..

Both are tricky, well nigh impossible to predict, and are most often recognized after the event. Various predictors are proposed, but these do not always work (rarely work?)

The magnitude of each varies. Some EQs are just mild bumps, while others destroy freeways and infrastructure. Some economic "bumps" are local, like plant closings, losing a job, etc., while some threaten the entire global balance.

In any event, one must be prepared, ideally well in advance of the essentially unpredictable event. Stay out of debt and don't mount mirrors on your ceiling. Stock up your pantry with nutritious food and exercise and stay in shape. You will be well set for life's lesser problems.
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Geezer in Chief

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#293727 - 10/06/19 03:20 PM Re: Earthquakes and Economic Downturns [Re: hikermor]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5209
Loc: SOCAL
That about says it.

In CA with all the fault-lines and some interacting a small slip somewhere leads to a major EQ somewhere else. Same with banks and world debt.

Deutsche Bank is one of the world’s biggest and it’s teetering on bankruptcy. Do a web search on “Deutsche Bank bankruptcy” and see what shows up. Some folks think it’s past due, but the banking community can’t allow it to go. There’s no room for error there because if it does go, it could trigger a number of other bank failures. What do you do if your bank doesn’t open Monday morning and credit locks up?

The world runs on credit. That’s part of the problem.

Those aren’t my thoughts, somebody smarter than me...

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#293731 - 10/07/19 05:03 PM Re: Earthquakes and Economic Downturns [Re: hikermor]
nursemike Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 808
Loc: wellington, fl
Old testament is chock full of conspiracies, social collapse, and natural disaster. Everything old is new again.

But it is also full of surviving remnants, amazing turnarounds, and eventual triumph. That is not new either.

Not espousing a religious view here: suggesting that things are not as bad as we fear, or as good as we hope. Stick to the values of your tribe, be kind to each other and keep doing the next right things.

I still have my Y2K headlamp ready to go, but I use it to walk the dog. Discovered it works better as necklace than as a hat.
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Dance like you have never been hurt, work like no one is watching,love like you don't need the money.

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#293733 - 10/07/19 05:32 PM Re: Earthquakes and Economic Downturns [Re: hikermor]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5209
Loc: SOCAL
One of the problems with discussing economic armageddon is that it’s very easy to slip into religious or political discussions, unfortunately some tend to inhabit the same Venn diagram space.

Just keep to the well written articles and rumors that make sense. IMO a lot of what is happening in the financial world makes no sense — negative interest rates?? — paying someone to take a loan?? WTH

When William Shakespeare penned, “There’s something rotten in Denmark”, was he referring to mortgage rates in 2019???
Danish bank is offering 10-year mortgages with negative interest rates

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#293734 - 10/07/19 05:58 PM Re: Earthquakes and Economic Downturns [Re: Russ]
Jeanette_Isabelle Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 2180
Loc: Somewhere in Florida
Originally Posted By: Russ
IMO a lot of what is happening in the financial world makes no sense — negative interest rates?? — paying someone to take a loan?? WTH

Negative interest is needed when money is not moving as it should. We don't have that problem now — quite the contrary. If the New York Federal Reserve has to print $75 Billion a day, we have the opposite problem.

Removed.

Jeanette Isabelle


Edited by chaosmagnet (10/08/19 01:06 AM)
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“Trust me, this is not gonna end well!” — Pleakley, Lilo & Stitch

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#293735 - 10/07/19 06:22 PM Re: Earthquakes and Economic Downturns [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
Roarmeister Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 09/12/01
Posts: 916
Loc: Saskatchewan, Canada
Originally Posted By: Jeanette_Isabelle
Originally Posted By: Russ
IMO a lot of what is happening in the financial world makes no sense — negative interest rates?? — paying someone to take a loan?? WTH

Negative interest is needed when money is not moving as it should. We don't have that problem now — quite the contrary. If the New York Federal Reserve has to print $75 Billion a day, we have the opposite problem.

Removed.

Jeanette Isabelle


A lot of countries unfortunately have instituted negative rates. Canada / US seem to be in the minority bubble where we have positive but low rates.

What's worse is that after the 2008-09 collapse, a lot of the banks had to increase their reserve percentage as per Basel III and they also instituted BAIL IN programs. This would allow a financially panicked bank to pluck the money out of your bank accounts and use that to shore up their reserves. Basically legalized theft to support Trillion dollar banks!

I have been watching Deustche Bank and their huge derivative exposure. If DB goes down, the impact to other banks will be a domino effect. I am pretty sure DB is going to fall before the end of the year and catch a lot of people off guard.

Last month I parked my money into more conservative funds, precious metals, and near money equivalents to soften the blow.


Edited by chaosmagnet (10/08/19 01:06 AM)

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