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#286267 - 09/16/17 09:06 PM And then there was Maria...
airballrad Offline
Gear Junkie
Enthusiast

Registered: 10/22/07
Posts: 244
Loc: Gulf Coast Florida, USA


Edited by airballrad (09/17/17 11:28 PM)
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#286269 - 09/16/17 11:34 PM Re: And then there was Maria... [Re: airballrad]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1366
and they call the wind ... Maria

That didn't take long. It's now a tropical storm, but expected to become a Hurricane. And another storm (Lee) right behind.

It doesn't look like the British Virgin Islands, and the French Islands in the Caribbean, are going to get any breaks. It will be a very rough time for those folks.

It's far too early to guess how Florida will handle this, but the path for Maria seems similar to Irma as it will cross north of Puerto Rico. if I was living in the Florida Keys, I'd be thinking about getting my valuable stuff to a safe place on the mainland.


Edited by Pete (09/16/17 11:35 PM)

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#286270 - 09/17/17 12:08 AM Re: And then there was Maria... [Re: Pete]
airballrad Offline
Gear Junkie
Enthusiast

Registered: 10/22/07
Posts: 244
Loc: Gulf Coast Florida, USA
USVI is in the crosshairs again for this one too if this path verifies. My wife's cousin lives on St. John, and that place is pretty thoroughly destroyed. A second storm, even if "only" a Cat 3 when it hits, will not help matters at all.

_If_ Maria comes to Florida it will be interesting to see if there are evacuations out of state like there were for Irma. I think many of the people that did that are willing to take their chances for the next one, considering how miserable an experience the evacuation became.
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#286271 - 09/17/17 12:25 AM Re: And then there was Maria... [Re: airballrad]
hikermor Online   content
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 6941
Loc: southern Cal
It would seem that when there is massive destruction to the infrastructure and disruption of supply chains, there is no easy option, provided your shelter-in-place withstands the event...

How do you solve a problem named Maria?
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#286273 - 09/17/17 01:15 AM Re: And then there was Maria... [Re: airballrad]
Jeanette_Isabelle Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 2111
Loc: Somewhere in Florida
Originally Posted By: airballrad
_If_ Maria comes to Florida it will be interesting to see if there are evacuations out of state like there were for Irma. I think many of the people that did that are willing to take their chances for the next one, considering how miserable an experience the evacuation became.

Though God spared us, bugging in was nevertheless a scary experience. I don't want to do that again.

Jeanette Isabelle
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#286277 - 09/17/17 04:51 AM Re: And then there was Maria... [Re: airballrad]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1366
Jeanette - no need to panic just yet. No two hurricanes ever follow the same path. We don't yet know what size Hurricane Maria will be, let alone where it will go.

Your experience "bugging in" did give you a real taste for how that goes. You have a few days to make plans, just in case you don't want to stay at home again. But no need to activate anything at this stage.

I think a lot of Floridians on the mainland will probably choose to shelter-in-place for the next hurricane. But a lot depends on how much water was in each neighborhood. OR ELSE - the folks who decide to leave will get out early. Which is good.

Maria is predicted to go right over Puerto Rico ... in the latest ground tracks. That could suck quite a lot of energy out of the storm. We'll see ...

The big question again ... the Florida Keys. We now know what a "Conch" is, and why they won't leave. But I think that Irma taught the Conch's the wrong lesson. Time will tell.

The Governor of Florida is probably just shaking his head ... right about now.



Edited by Pete (09/17/17 04:58 AM)

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#286279 - 09/17/17 01:35 PM Re: And then there was Maria... [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
bacpacjac Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 05/05/07
Posts: 3601
Loc: Ontario, Canada
What would you change next time, Jeanette Isabelle? Would you bug-out or make changes to your Bug-in plan?
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#286280 - 09/17/17 02:16 PM Re: And then there was Maria... [Re: airballrad]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1366
looking at that storm track - very bad news for the Virgin Islands, the French islands, and the coast of Puerto Rico. Maria is a little bit more to the south (compared to Irma), which puts the islands on the east (or north-east) side of the storm - exactly where the winds are the worst.

We will have to wait to see how big this hurricane grows. right now it looks like they are saying it will only be a Cat 1 or Cat 2 hurricane as it goes through the Caribbean.


Edited by Pete (09/17/17 03:00 PM)

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#286281 - 09/17/17 03:59 PM Re: And then there was Maria... [Re: airballrad]
Russ Online   content
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5169
Loc: SOCAL
Is there a link to the "European Model" regarding Maria. It would be interesting to see how they are calling Maria considering the damage to Saint Martin and the British Virgin Islands.

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#286282 - 09/17/17 04:14 PM Re: And then there was Maria... [Re: Russ]
Russ Online   content
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5169
Loc: SOCAL
There's a good read at: Weather Underground on Hurricane Forecast Computer Models ...
Quote:
... Over the past decade, NHC has greatly improved their forecasts by relying on consensus forecast models made using various combinations of the GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, HWRF, and ECMWF models. If you average together the track forecasts from these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it, and the NHC forecast has been hard to beat over the past few years. The single best-performing model over the past two years has been the ECMWF. This model out-performed the official NHC forecast in 2010 for 3-day and 4-day forecasts, and in 2009 for 4-day and 5-day forecasts. You can view ECMWF forecasts on our Wundermap with the model layer turned on. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on our computer model forecast page that plots positions from the other major models ...

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