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#286150 - 09/12/17 02:55 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Pete]
hikermor Offline
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Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 6861
Loc: southern Cal
On the other hand, there is some cheering and clapping:

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-prepared-20170912-story.html

The article cites a study that traces the decline in hurricane related deaths from 1400 per decade (1910-1939) to 700 deaths per decade(1940-1969) to 250 deaths per decade (1970-1999). Omitted from the figures are the fatalities from the 1900 Galveston storm, which are not known, but were somewhere around 12,000 - the greatest loss of life in a natural disaster in US history. All of this occurred despite increasing coastal development over this period.

Frankly, I saw nothing in the predictive models which would have suggested that Tampa was "safe." I would have vacated the entire peninsula, hung a left when I reached I-10, and not stopped until arrival, in Arizona , or at least west Texas. But I would do that even without a hurricane....





Edited by hikermor (09/12/17 02:56 PM)
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#286156 - 09/12/17 05:56 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: haertig]
Bingley Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/27/08
Posts: 1390
Originally Posted By: haertig
Free transportation was available I believe.


You weren't aware of this fact when you made the post condemning those who stayed. My response merely pointed out a shortcoming in your reasoning process, cautioning you not to jump to conclusions before you have the facts. What you're doing now is pointing out that even a broken clock is right twice a day, which is something that I can agree with you on. However, I normally don't incriminate myself, and I warmly recommend that for you, too!

I myself was quite suspicious that there could be 10,000 destitute people in the Keys without the resources to get out, but I knew nothing of the Conch Republic. Better to play it safe.

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#286159 - 09/12/17 07:30 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Bingley]
hikermor Offline
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Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 6861
Loc: southern Cal
It might be worth noting that we are not out of the woods on this disaster quite yet. Cleanup activities post disaster ring up a large number of injuries and fatalities (carbon monoxide, chainsaws, etc). There is also the logistical challenge of returning the evacuees - not a simple task.

I am not going to second guess anyone's decision faced with hurricane Irma. There are abundant risks whichever choice you make, and individual circumstances vary considerably.

Just for the record, I would probably have left. I enjoy extended camping trips.....
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#286170 - 09/13/17 03:28 AM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Russ]
Pete Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1361
A long haul for residents now. More that 50% of homes without power. And it may take weeks to get everyone "up and running" with electricity again.

But overall ... Florida came out pretty well. This could have been much, much worse.

I don't have a problem with how authorities handled this. I think they did the best with all the information they had. Every resident who wanted to get to safety ... had a chance to go to a shelter or a safer city.

Which option is better ...
To do what Houston did - and leave people in flooded neighborhoods?
Or to do what Florida died - and try to get people out of zones that could be a "ground zero" for a hurricane?

This will be debated for a long time.
I am thankful that the casualties were few - that is an answer to many prayers.


Edited by Pete (09/13/17 03:29 AM)

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#286174 - 09/13/17 05:39 AM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Bingley]
haertig Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/13/05
Posts: 2073
Loc: Colorado
Originally Posted By: Bingley
Originally Posted By: haertig
Free transportation was available I believe.

You weren't aware of this fact when you made the post condemning those who stayed. My response merely pointed out a shortcoming in your reasoning process, cautioning you not to jump to conclusions before you have the facts.

Point taken. But notice that you are jumping to conclusions yourself. "You weren't aware of this fact when you made the post..." Yes, actually I was. I didn't state that in that earlier post, but I was none the less aware of it. I didn't state that the Earth is round and the sky is blue either, but I'm aware of those things as well.

When I spoke of the "nitwits who were too thick-headed to leave", I was speaking about the ones who chose not to leave, not the ones who for some reason could not leave. I thought that was obvious by my comment, but maybe not.

Not that I ever had a choice (I can't control how my tax payments are spent), but if I did, I would still chose to pay to rescue nitwits. They don't deserve to die for their actions, stupid as they may be. But I would want to lecture them on their stupidity WHILE helping them. I wouldn't raise them up as heroes. I will now specifically state that I am not talking about the people who could not leave. I thought that was understood/obvious in my original post, but since it wasn't, I'll explicitly state it this time.

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#286176 - 09/13/17 07:01 AM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Russ]
Tjin Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 04/08/02
Posts: 1756
Free transport does not mean you can get out. The problem are not the healthy and mobile people, they generally survive, unless they do something stupid or have bad luck.

The problem are the less mobile and poor people. The ones that are disabled, but not in care facilities. So depending on them self, but with an emergency, they just are not mobile enough to do something about it and too poor to hire somebody. If you lack somebody to take care of you then than they have a big problem.

These are generally represented in the 65+ category. In Katherina, the majority of deaths are in that poorer 65+ category.
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#286185 - 09/13/17 03:36 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Tjin]
hikermor Offline
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Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 6861
Loc: southern Cal
Here are questions to ponder at some time when the definitive data are available:

What was the fatality/injury rate among those who elected to stay on the keys during Irma? How does that compare with those who evacuated?

So far, I have not seen anything about large numbers of fatalities among those who remained, nor, for that matter, anything about incidents among the evacuees. Indeed, the number of fatalities (somewhere in the mid-50s) seems quite low considering the population at risk in this storm.

Presumably one would leave because remaining would expose one to a significant chance of dying. If that is not the case, there is a significant advantage to sheltering in place - nothing works like home field advantage...
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#286186 - 09/13/17 04:51 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: hikermor]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1134
Loc: Alaska
An interesting article at WaPo: The deadliest period of a hurricane? After it’s over.
Quote:
More people are killed in the aftermath of the storm, especially during cleanup.


Meanwhile Five Dead After Florida Nursing Home Goes Without Air Conditioning After Irma
Quote:
Five people are dead and 115 have been evacuated to a local hospital from a nursing home that had no air conditioning following Hurricane Irma, the police said Wednesday. Two employees of the nursing home, the Rehabilitation Center at Hollywood Hills, said that it had power but that at some point the air conditioning stopped working. Three died at the facility and two more during the evacuation to a nearby hospital, city officials said.
-------------snip-----------------
Roughly 160 nursing homes in Florida remained without commercial power on Wednesday morning, according to the state’s tracking system. Most of those nursing homes lacked a generator that could run air conditioning. High temperatures were becoming a major concern.


EDIT: Death toll at nursing home now up to six: 6 dead at South Florida nursing home as state grapples with heat and outages after Irma
Quote:
The rehabilitation center is located across the street from Memorial Regional Hospital, the flagship facility of the Memorial Healthcare System and one of the largest hospitals in the state. An official from Memorial said that the healthcare network was helping with evacuating people from the rehabilitation center, which is not part of the Memorial system, and will take some to their other hospitals in the region.
The facility’s administrator did not return messages left by The Washington Post.
At a news conference, Florida Power and Light said it serviced portions of the facility. Robert Gould, the utility’s chief communications officer, said he understood that certain parts of the facility had power. He said Broward County did not list the facility as critical infrastructure — the places where restoring power is a top priority after a storm — in a hurricane planning meeting earlier this year.
“This facility was not listed as a top critical” by Broward County, Gould said.
“What we’ve seen is something extremely tragic that points to the need to having plans in advance when it comes to emergency preparation. I would be remiss if i didn’t say our deepest sympathies goes out to the families of those lost their lives,” Gould said.


Edited by AKSAR (09/13/17 05:11 PM)
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#286187 - 09/13/17 04:53 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: hikermor]
Tjin Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 04/08/02
Posts: 1756
Originally Posted By: hikermor
Here are questions to ponder at some time when the definitive data are available:

What was the fatality/injury rate among those who elected to stay on the keys during Irma? How does that compare with those who evacuated?

So far, I have not seen anything about large numbers of fatalities among those who remained, nor, for that matter, anything about incidents among the evacuees. Indeed, the number of fatalities (somewhere in the mid-50s) seems quite low considering the population at risk in this storm.

Presumably one would leave because remaining would expose one to a significant chance of dying. If that is not the case, there is a significant advantage to sheltering in place - nothing works like home field advantage...



This is always hard to say as the group that stays has a very different make up than those who choose to leave. So you cannot compare the different groups directly.

Also there is always a discussion on how do those who die, would have faired differently if they where not there. How did staying effected them? And would they have died regardlessly?

A different example that demonstrates that issue are heatwaves; heatwaves can cause an increase of premature death among older people, but if you look at a year average, these increase are often not visible. Which kind of indicates that it takes out people earlier, but those people where likely to have died soon anyways.

Also the reason to leave might not to be avoid death, but also has a lot to do with comfort. Nobody want to stay in misery.
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#286188 - 09/13/17 05:57 PM Re: Florida - Here comes Irma [Re: Tjin]
haertig Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/13/05
Posts: 2073
Loc: Colorado
Originally Posted By: Tjin
Which kind of indicates that it takes out people earlier, but those people where likely to have died soon anyways.

Interesting observation. My wife (works in orthopedics) has a similar theory/observation about the elderly and hip fractures. Often times, a hip fracture late in life is the harbinger of death within six months. Life expectancy can be short after such a fracture in the elderly. Theories of why this is are abundant - loss of mobility, slow healing at age, physical inactivity due to pain/mechanical issues, depression, etc. My wife's theory is that the hip fracture does not cause the typical short lifespan thereafter, but is more a single event in an already-in-motion chain of events that would ultimately lead to death anyways. Just a theory. But similar in concept to what Tjin expressed above. [ Often times hips are surgically repaired in the elderly not for long term recovery, but for pain relief and comfort during the time that is left. ]

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