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#286124 - 09/12/17 01:10 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
nursemike Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 788
Loc: wellington, fl
we also learned that the weather weenies need to alter their computer graphics. As the science has improved, the cone of uncertainty and spaghetti maps have gotten narrower, while the hurricanes have gotten wider. The narrow projected paths convinced east coast floridians that they could safely evacuate to Tampa; they then found themselves back in the crosshairs. If the cone of uncertainty was the width of the storm instead of the location of the eye, it would have have been apparent that the entire peninsula would be involved, whatever path the eye took.

Which also explains the skepticism shown by some to evacuation orders, as they see the places they have evacuated to damaged more than the places they were directed by experts to evacuate from.

Leading to the next lesson: if evacuating, go big or stay home. If I choose to evacuate southeast Florida, my destination will be North Carolina, not Tampa.
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Dance like you have never been hurt, work like no one is watching,love like you don't need the money.

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#286154 - 09/12/17 05:22 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
TeacherRO Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 03/11/05
Posts: 2181
foe me its gas- fill up early and keep extra on hand.
10-25 gals stored in the pre season would have been very helpful.

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#286157 - 09/12/17 07:14 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: TeacherRO]
LesSnyder Offline
Veteran

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1465
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
I'm currently running on a generator, power is still out... I use a squeeze ball prime siphon system to power my generator...a 5gal or larger fuel can sits bungeed to the plywood cover of my generator, that way you don't have to hot fuel the engine, and can use any available size container... as I'm rotating between 3 users, each can supply their own fuel... again a hitch ball on a riding mower and small utility trailer made clean up much easier, and easily carries the genset...


Edited by LesSnyder (09/12/17 07:15 PM)

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#286158 - 09/12/17 07:20 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: LesSnyder]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5964
Loc: southern Cal
I will be very interested in your comments after the dust has settled (better metaphor-after the mud has dried?) and what you might consider doing differently the next time...
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#286160 - 09/12/17 07:43 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: nursemike]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1045
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: nursemike
we also learned that the weather weenies need to alter their computer graphics. As the science has improved, the cone of uncertainty and spaghetti maps have gotten narrower, while the hurricanes have gotten wider. The narrow projected paths convinced east coast floridians that they could safely evacuate to Tampa; they then found themselves back in the crosshairs. If the cone of uncertainty was the width of the storm instead of the location of the eye, it would have have been apparent that the entire peninsula would be involved, whatever path the eye took.
I thought the graphics were pretty good, at least the ones I saw. NYT maps clearly showed previous path, width of both hurricane force winds and tropical storm force winds, latest location, and projected path with cone of uncertainty for that path. All the info anyone needed.

I suspect in many cases people read into those maps what they want to see. Add in a common lack of basic map reading and geographic literacy.

Finally, when it comes to weather, even smart educated people seem to completely forget the most elementary statistical concepts. I spent my career in the oil industry, working with smart, highly educated geologists, engineers, and geophysicists. I vividly recall one day when I was leaving the office, on a partly cloudy but otherwise pleasant afternoon. One of my co-workers grumbled "...the weatherman always gets it wrong!" I asked what was the problem? He replied "They said it was a 60% chance of rain today!" I said "Well yes, but that also means a 40% chance it won't rain." He gave me a dirty look and stomped off.


Edited by AKSAR (09/12/17 07:45 PM)
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#286161 - 09/12/17 07:57 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: AKSAR]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5964
Loc: southern Cal
http://temblor.net/hurricane-insights/wh...urricanes-5036/

This is a thoughtful discussion of what may be in store for the planet as current trends continue. We can expect Harvey and Irma's close friends and relatives to come calling ......(or storm the portals, perhaps?)
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#286162 - 09/12/17 09:46 PM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: AKSAR]
nursemike Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/09/06
Posts: 788
Loc: wellington, fl
Originally Posted By: AKSAR


I suspect in many cases people read into those maps what they want to see. Add in a common lack of basic map reading and geographic literacy.

Finally, when it comes to weather, even smart educated people seem to completely forget the most elementary statistical concepts.


Well said. I worked with the planning department staff in a rural NY in the eighties. They were skilled at using the emerging field of computer based graphic analysis to explain complex issues to the elected officials there. I was impressed with their ability to craft graphs and charts that accommodated the supervisors' lack of map reading and statistical skills. I imagine that the Times does a better job of this than local television producers; sadly most of the population doesn't read...the Times.
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Dance like you have never been hurt, work like no one is watching,love like you don't need the money.

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#286164 - 09/13/17 12:17 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: hikermor]
LesSnyder Offline
Veteran

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1465
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
hikermore...next time I'll rely more on the generators.. I have an older Honda that was repowered (Honda) and a Chinese inverter genset... both worked well...one hour every six seems about correct to keep the refrigerator cold... I still will freeze a couple of gallon jugs to help with the cold mass, and be able to transfer to the extended cooler if necessary

it is good to know that a 1928 built frame house can handle 90+

I need a better way to handle charging cell phone and eneloops... something like a dedicated power strip... the 3xAA Black Diamond head lamp, and the single AA SolarForce Z2 (stayed in my pocket) worked above and beyond

stored water + a case of bottles, cooking technique (water bath to cook individual cans without burning), propane stoves, preps went without a hiccup... a couple of deli sandwiches, PBJ, found I can pour boiling water through the Mr Coffee and get a hot cup...need to store some junk food, a cold can of Coke sure tasted good and a couple of candy bars will be added

I had ignored the charging of a 12v trolling motor battery and when needed did not work... will not rely on one again...battery powered radio worked (AA Eneloop)

the synthetic Rawlings athletic shirts were life savers working in the heat and humidity... high vis colors a benefit

commented a couple of times, but the hitch ball on the lawnmower and utility trailer for clean up and to ferry the generator to neighbors

day 2 power still out

my D cell tent fan to spin the ceiling fan makes it bearable when you are used to A/C

query your questions and comments

thanks for everyone's support

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#286165 - 09/13/17 12:25 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: LesSnyder]
Jeanette_Isabelle Offline
Veteran

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 1575
Loc: Ocala, FL
Originally Posted By: LesSnyder
it is good to know that a 1928 built frame house can handle 90+

That's impressive.

Jeanette Isabelle
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"A grain of wheat must fall to the ground before it can do any good. New life springs from fallen grain." -- Fleda Claes Johansson

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#286167 - 09/13/17 12:55 AM Re: Lessons from these hurricanes? [Re: LesSnyder]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5964
Loc: southern Cal
Do you have any notion of how many hurricanes your 1928 house has experienced? I would image Irma was not the first one....

For charging cell phones and Eneloop batteries, I am planning to rely on solar panels and a variety of power banks. I have used these on field projects and they seem promising. I am also happy with the various inflatable "Luci" solar lights that are available. They have worked well for me and they are fairly cheap....
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