As I've mentioned previously, I'm particularly interested in the Cascadia Subduction Zone hazard because I'm from Oregon and my sister still lives there (Portland).

This link below is to a state government report so grim in regard to the seismic vulnerabilities of Oregon's petroleum and electricity infrastructure, that I hesitate to mention it to her.

90% of Oregon's petroleum supplies come from the Pugent Sound area, via pipeline and ship and comes through a location on the Willamette River north of Portland so prone to liquefaction that a major quake in or near Portland would be catastrophic in terms of the environment, economy and the ability of the region to function post-quake.

Not only is this "Critical Energy Infrastructure" located on about the worst terrain imaginable but most of the facilities -- from piers to storage tanks -- were constructed before anyone had a clue that there was an earthquake threat, let alone the extent we now know it to be. This CEI (six miles long) includes natural gas facilities and a high-voltage electrical transmission corridor.

Some findings: 1) the primary liquid fuel pipeline dates to the 1960s; 2) 100% of Portland International Airport's liquid fuel supply goes through the CEI. There is much more in this rather riveting report.

http://www.oregongeology.org/sub/earthquakes/cei-hub-report.pdf

This report has me convinced, more than ever before, that Oregon is a ticking time bomb due to the CSZ. Remediation would be spectacularly expensive. Oregonians west of the Cascades had better get serious about individual preparedness -- including the ability to survive a winter without gasoline, oil or electricity.

Really hard to imagine that. I think there would be a mass migration out of the region -- far eclipsing what happened after Hurricane Katrina.

This is all such a reversal of what I grew up "knowing" about the Pacific Northwest. Before we moved there we lived near Los Angeles and had experienced the 1971 Sylmar quake (6.7 magnitude). We believed, as geologists believed, that we'd left the earthquake threat behind when we moved to Oregon.

We were so blissfully unaware.


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on a C-Span interview with Craig Fugate (FEMA)... on the 10th anniversary of Katrina, he was asked what was his greatest fear... that was #1 and a major hurricane striking the Chesapeake Bay....

The Chesapeake Bay - that's something I haven't thought of for awhile. There was a point during Hurricane Hugo's journey in 1989, when it was thought that it might come up the Bay.

That would be something.


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Blissfully Unaware - is a great way to sum up the whole situation.

For a long time I believed that the two areas are independent - what happens on the Cascadia is separate from what happens on the San Andreas. Although that's probably still the case, I am no longer confident about it. Seems like one event could trigger the other. I suspect now that the Cascadia might go first - have the first quake. I have not studied the liquefaction zones. The tsunami risk is very real, in Oregon but fortunately a lot of USGS geologists have been getting the word out to the towns on the OR coast.

There will be a lot of damage to the West Coast of the USA, when the Cascadia and the San Andreas quakes happen. Realistically, they will probably be separated by a short time period. If they happen together in one MEGA Quake - kiss the West Coast goodbye!!

Pete