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#275993 - 07/29/15 08:54 PM Follow-up New Yorker article: "How to Stay Safe.."
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1918
Loc: Washington, DC
The author of the New Yorker article on the Cascadia Subduction Zone a couple weeks ago which garnered so much coverage, has now written an article about preparedness.


http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/how-to-stay-safe-when-the-big-one-comes


"...Novelists and screenwriters can terrify people, feel pretty good about themselves, and call it a day. But for journalists, or at least this one, fear is not an end in itself. At best, it is a means to an end, a way to channel emotion into action. To achieve that, however, you need to navigate between the twin obstacles of panic (which makes you do all the wrong things) and fatalism (which makes you do nothing). In an effort to help people to do so, Iíve answered, below, some of the questions Iíve heard most often since the story was published, and also provided a little advice about how best to prepare for the Cascadia earthquake and tsunami, and their aftermath."




.

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#275996 - 07/29/15 09:15 PM Re: Follow-up New Yorker article: "How to Stay Safe.." [Re: Dagny]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Thanks Dagny, excellent follow-up.

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#275999 - 07/30/15 12:10 AM Re: Follow-up New Yorker article: "How to Stay Safe.." [Re: Dagny]
Jeanette_Isabelle Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 2940
Loc: Nacogdoches, Texas
I like his philosophy:

My own theory about earthquake preparedness is that the perfect is the enemy of the good: donít choose to stock nothing because you canít stock everything. Got money and space to spare? Great: fill a shelf with water and nonperishable foods. Throw in duct tape and a tool kit. Throw in a hand-cranked radio, a water purifier, iodine. Donít have much money or space? Make a small kit with whatever you can fit and afford. Everything you have, youíll use; everything you can do for yourself frees up emergency resources for those in even greater need.

Jeanette Isabelle
_________________________
I'm not sure whose twisted idea it was to put hundreds of adolescents in underfunded schools run by people whose dreams were crushed years ago, but I admire the sadism. -- Wednesday Adams, Wednesday

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#276001 - 07/30/15 02:26 AM Re: Follow-up New Yorker article: "How to Stay Safe.." [Re: Dagny]
AKSAR Offline
Veteran

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
That is an excellent follow up to the first article, thanks for posting the link.

There is a big regional exercise planned for 2016 called "Cascadia Rising".
Quote:
Conducting successful life-saving and life-sustaining response operations in the aftermath of a Cascadia Subduction Zone disaster will hinge on the effective coordination and integration of governments at all levels Ė cities, counties, state agencies, federal officials, the military, tribal nations Ė as well as non-government organizations and the private sector. One of the primary goals of Cascadia Rising is to train and test this whole community approach to complex disaster operations together as a joint team.

The culminating event will be a four-day functional exercise to occur June 7-10, 2016. Emergency Operations and Coordination Centers (EOC/ECCs) at all levels of government and the private sector will activate to coordinate simulated field response operations both within their jurisdictions and also with neighboring communities, state EOCs, FEMA, and major military commands.


A particularly interesting document is the EXERCISE SCENARIO DOCUMENT (a PDF), which lays out in considerable detail what might be expected in terms of damage. What infrastructure and facilities might survive intact, and what is likely to be severely damaged or destroyed. It provides a lot of educated guesses about what will happen when "The Really Big One" hits.
_________________________
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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#276004 - 07/30/15 05:25 AM Re: Follow-up New Yorker article: "How to Stay Safe.." [Re: Dagny]
JeffMc Offline
Member

Registered: 05/10/15
Posts: 129
Loc: Northwest Florida
In addition to strapping in water heaters, earthquake valves that automatically shut off the gas supply in response to earthquakes over about R5 are a fairly inexpensive and highly useful safety upgrade. They can be easily reset by the homeowner after inspecting gas lines and appliances for any leaks or damage.

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#276012 - 07/30/15 04:17 PM Re: Follow-up New Yorker article: "How to Stay Safe.." [Re: AKSAR]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1918
Loc: Washington, DC
Originally Posted By: AKSAR
A particularly interesting document is the EXERCISE SCENARIO DOCUMENT (a PDF), which lays out in considerable detail what might be expected in terms of damage. What infrastructure and facilities might survive intact, and what is likely to be severely damaged or destroyed. It provides a lot of educated guesses about what will happen when "The Really Big One" hits.



AKSAR - thanks for that link. I've just begun reading it and even the methodology is interesting. This quote jumps out:

"...the fragility curves for tall buildings are not well under- stood for prolonged shaking (4-6 minutes)...."



.

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#276200 - 08/13/15 08:37 PM Re: Follow-up New Yorker article: "How to Stay Safe.." [Re: Dagny]
Jeanette_Isabelle Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 11/13/06
Posts: 2940
Loc: Nacogdoches, Texas
This article suddenly became more relevant now that Mom's researching the threat of a tsunami hitting the east coast, including Florida. We live approximately twenty-five miles inland; Florida is relatively flat. If the wave is a few hundred feet high, what is there to stop it?

Jeanette Isabelle
_________________________
I'm not sure whose twisted idea it was to put hundreds of adolescents in underfunded schools run by people whose dreams were crushed years ago, but I admire the sadism. -- Wednesday Adams, Wednesday

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#276201 - 08/13/15 08:41 PM Re: Follow-up New Yorker article: "How to Stay Safe.." [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
CJK Offline
Addict

Registered: 08/14/05
Posts: 601
Loc: FL, USA
Originally Posted By: Jeanette_Isabelle
This article suddenly became more relevant now that Mom's researching the threat of a tsunami hitting the east coast, including Florida. We live approximately twenty-five miles inland; Florida is relatively flat. If the wave is a few hundred feet high, what is there to stop it?

Jeanette Isabelle


What is there to stop it? Texas.

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#276202 - 08/13/15 09:12 PM Re: Follow-up New Yorker article: "How to Stay Safe.." [Re: CJK]
AKSAR Offline
Veteran

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1233
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: CJK
Originally Posted By: Jeanette_Isabelle
This article suddenly became more relevant now that Mom's researching the threat of a tsunami hitting the east coast, including Florida. We live approximately twenty-five miles inland; Florida is relatively flat. If the wave is a few hundred feet high, what is there to stop it?

Jeanette Isabelle
What is there to stop it? Texas.

I think J.I. is referring to the possibility of a tsunami from the Atlantic side of Florida. While region around the Atlantic is generally much less prone to major earthquakes and tsunamis than the Pacific "Ring of Fire", they do happen there. Just much less frequently. The two most often cited are the 1755 Lisbon earthquake and tsunami (on the other side of the pond), and the 1929 Magnitude 7.2 "Grand Banks" earthquake and tsunami.
Quote:
Approximately 2 1/2 hours after the earthquake the tsunami struck the southern end of the Burin Peninsula in Newfoundland as three main pulses, causing local sea levels to rise between 2 and 7 metres. At the heads of several of the long narrow bays on the Burin Peninsula the momentum of the tsunami carried water as high as 13 metres. This giant sea wave claimed a total of 28 lives - 27 drowned on the Burin peninsula and a young girl never recovered from her injuries and died in 1933.

However, I suspect that being 25 miles inland, J.I. probably doesn't need to worry too much about tsunamis. Like any wave, tsunamis tend to dissipate and lose energy as they move over land. My guess would be that it would run out of gas before it reached her.
_________________________
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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#276204 - 08/14/15 11:16 AM Re: Follow-up New Yorker article: "How to Stay Safe.." [Re: Jeanette_Isabelle]
benjammin Offline
Rapscallion
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
I believe the big concern in the Atlantic was a volcano in the Canary islands sloughing off. The last model I saw had the entire Florida peninsula inundated by the resulting Tsunami. I would expect anything south of Jacksonville to be scoured into the Gulf of Mexico based on that. The model indicated that enough erosion would occur that the peninsula would remain underwater indefinitely.
_________________________
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

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