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#273595 - 01/09/15 12:12 AM Re: Are you ready for 30 years of cold? [Re: AKSAR]
bws48 Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/18/07
Posts: 830
Loc: Anne Arundel County, Maryland
Originally Posted By: AKSAR

In the CO2 vs climate case there is a clear mechanism available. The physics of CO2 as a greenhouse gas has been well understood for more than a century. Furthermore, other possible causes of atmospheric warming (eccentricity of the earths orbit, variations of solar output, etc) have been carefully factored in to the climate models, and shown to be much less significant. As the models have become more sophisticated, the case for the significance of Increasing CO2 levels has become much stronger.

I think that this is probably true, but IMO, this does not quite equal proven; it remains a theory with evidence for it, but not definitive proof. My fundamental problem is that I think the climate projections (based on the present climate models and theories) do not include all the variables (because we don't understand or know all the variables, and how they interact).

Yet, I agree that we should minimize the use of fossil fuels and maximize the use of "renewable" or "green" fuels. It seems to me that over the past 10,000 years or so, for whatever reason, the climate has been warming. Human produced or not, in the short or long term, we need to reduce our impact on this trend and the environment, to the minimum and be prepared for a future climate different from what we are used to.

So, I guess I quibble with the science and theories, but agree that we need to slow down our consumption of carbon based resources.

Yes, the climate is warming. How much and how fast is debatable. But, IMO, that does not mean we should ignore or deny our impact on the problem and fail to take actions to minimize the impact we have on the climate and environment.

For me, just because we can debate a climate model (and its supporting data) does not mean we should feel free to dump all the CO2 and greenhouse gasses into our atmosphere that we want to. I would sort of like my grand-kids (and great-grand-kids, I hope) to grow up in a world sort of like (at least from a climate perspective) like we did.
"Better is the enemy of good enough."

#273597 - 01/09/15 12:48 AM Re: Are you ready for 30 years of cold? [Re: bws48]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
What is the average Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature. Well the computer models taking data from the base period 1951-1980 it is 14.0 degrees Celsius.

Yes a computer model. Not a direct measurement of the Temperature. A great deal of heat island effects have occurred since then. Lots of poured concrete surrounding the same temperature sensors making the same measurements since then.

You may have a theory of global warming let alone industrial human causation, but don't assume you have the data (i.e. what was the temperature record for the last 150 years 238 km directly east of the south pole or 1456 km east of Perth Australia) measured using very limited sample sites in environments (mostly in the Northern Hemisphere) that have been changing (micro climates).

Remember that we are looking for changes in fractions of 1 degree Celsius. Measurement of temperature is extremely difficult as even micro bolometers have difficulty measuring with accuracies less than 0.1 degree Celsius.

Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (01/09/15 12:52 AM)

#273601 - 01/09/15 03:18 AM Re: Are you ready for 30 years of cold? [Re: bws48]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1156
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: bws48
My fundamental problem is that I think the climate projections (based on the present climate models and theories) do not include all the variables (because we don't understand or know all the variables, and how they interact).
No, we don't know all the variables and how they interact.

However, the models become more sophisticated all the time, and as they do they begin to converge on what are the most important variables and their interaction. And, the models are testable.

We can (and do) test them in several ways. The most obvious way is to simply use the model to project forward, then wait and see how well actual events agree with the model predictions. This works, and we do this, but there are some obvious disadvantages with this approach. For one thing, it takes awhile. Also, in the case of climate models, if we wait to see if the prediction was correct, it is then far to late to do anything about it.

So the other way climate models are tested is by "hindcasting". We select some point in the past when we have a reasonably good idea of what conditions were. Then we run the model forward to today. Then we look at how good (or not) the predicted conditions agree with what we can actually observe.

Our understanding of the variables and how they interact gets better, which allows us to better quantify them in the model. New approaches and techniques give us a much better picture of past climates, which helps us test and calibrate the models by hindcasting. We get more accurate and more complete data on current climate all the time, which provides better input into the models. And improvements in computer power enable us to run much more detailed models with finer resolution.

No, the models aren't perfect. But they get better and better all the time. And what they are telling us is not good.
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

#273602 - 01/09/15 08:16 AM Re: Are you ready for 30 years of cold? [Re: AKSAR]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078
If you are going to tweak your GW model variables to curve fit the 'real world' with a temperature increase over time for the last 100 years then the model will no doubt continue to show future GW. But I suspect there may have even had some good fits to the 'real world' but then suddenly nosedived (global cooling) in the future. This can happen when attempting to model closed non linear heterogeneous systems with vast mathematical matrix's. But I bet they get thrown out or dismissed.
I would suggest the following for some GW expert. Might make a nice PhD for someone. Go back to the historic 'real world' data sets (last 100 years) for each mercury thermometer then compensate the temperature data for the local thermometers by build an historic micro climate model to adjust the temperature record data for that thermometer. The 'Real World' temperature curve might suddenly flatten out with everything within +-0.5 degrees Celsius of 14.0C i.e. the measurement error wink

Edited by Am_Fear_Liath_Mor (01/09/15 08:23 AM)

#273603 - 01/09/15 09:55 AM Re: Are you ready for 30 years of cold? [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
MostlyHarmless Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 06/03/09
Posts: 982
Loc: Norway
It's not "curve fitting", Am Fear. It is a brutal test to see if your model has the right physics, with the right choice of parameters.

And yes, through the accumulated efforts of thousands of scientists these models do a pretty damned good job of calculating the physicss of the atmosphere and how our climate has changed up to 2014, and how that climate will continue to change given different trajectories for CO2-levels.

Nothing is perfect, not even climate models. But they are good enough to be useful.

#273610 - 01/09/15 07:35 PM Re: Are you ready for 30 years of cold? [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
JerryFountain Offline

Registered: 12/06/07
Posts: 418
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida

Thermometer data is not particularly useful as you point out. That is why very few models use that data. There is a tremendous amount of "proxy" information available and that is what scientists are using. If you really have an interest in the science I would recommend starting with "Climate since A.D. 1500" by Bradley and Jones (Routledge, ISBN 0-415-12030-6). It has excellent descriptions of many of these techniques and the data that has been obtained from them. Many of the same techniques and others as well have been used to retrieve information for several hundred thousand years in the past.



#273628 - 01/10/15 03:28 PM Re: Are you ready for 30 years of cold? [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
Russ Offline

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5265
I hesitate to post this link because the interview at the other end is virtually all about the politics of GW. Per the interviewee, GW is politics ...
KWN interview w/ Lord Christopher Monckton
I have not been able to find the article mentioned in the Chinese Science Bulletin.

#273632 - 01/10/15 05:24 PM Re: Are you ready for 30 years of cold? [Re: Russ]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1156
Loc: Alaska
Russ, if you need snake oil, Lord Monckton is your guy.

Monckton claimed that he has developed a cure for Graves’ Disease, AIDS, Multiple Schlerosis, the flu, and the common cold. This is no joke–he actually filed applications to patent a “therapeutic treatment” in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013.
The list of diseases cured by Monckton’s miracle tonic expands from time to time. At one point he claimed, “Patients have been cured of various infectious diseases, including Graves’ Disease, multiple sclerosis, influenza, and herpes simplex VI.” At another time he said, “Patients have been cured of various infectious diseases, including Graves’ disease, multiple sclerosis, influenza, food poisoning, and HIV.” Maybe some of you physicians out there can help me interpret this, but it looks to me like Monckton is claiming that his Wonder Cure will 1) wipe out any virus without harming the patient, and 2) cure auto-immune disorders that may (or may not) have initially been triggered by a viral infection. It is unclear to me whether bacterial infections are supposed to be affected since, for instance, food poisoning could be caused by either. [UPDATE: Monckton apparently is saying the miracle cure should be effective against both viral and bacterial infections, as well as prions.]
Monckton represented himself to members of the U.S. Congress as a member of the U.K. House of Lords (the upper house of Parliament.) When people started pointing out that he doesn’t appear on the official list of members, however, he started saying that he is a member “without a seat or vote.” When queried, the House of Lords responded that there is no such thing as a member without a seat or vote, and Lord Monckton had never been a member because he inherited his title (Viscount) in 2006, after all but 92 hereditary peers had been barred from membership in the House of Lords since 1999.
It goes on and on, but I would carefully double check anything this guy says.
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

#273658 - 01/12/15 04:34 AM Re: Are you ready for 30 years of cold? [Re: Russ]
benjammin Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 02/06/04
Posts: 4020
Loc: Anchorage AK
Much ado about nothing. It is arrogance to think that mankind has such a grand influence on the workings of this planet. There are myriad fact based reasons for why the temperature changes over time.

There was a time in our planet's history when there was a lot more carbon flowing through our ecosystem. It was a time when our world was covered in vegetation, when animals flourished, and the surface of the planet was rich with life. Where did all the carbon we use today come from? All the fossil fuels we use today were in the ecosystem, moving through the carbon phase as CO2, CH3, and various living hydrocarbons. Then they got sequestered away beneath the surface.

Things change all the time. I am not going to worry about climate change, because the climate changes one way or the other continuously, and thank God it does. I have bigger problems to deal with, as do the rest of the people on this planet. Sure, warmer (or colder) temperatures might be inconvenient for some people, of great benefit to others. I think it just depends on where you are at the time. People seem to find a way to do well in just about any climate one can experience, be it sand dunes, rainforest, glacial peak, or even under the sea. If one place gets worse, another is sure to improve. In any case, wherever you are, it is sure that things will not stay the same for long, speaking from a geologic/climatic perspective.
The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools.
-- Herbert Spencer, English Philosopher (1820-1903)

#273668 - 01/12/15 04:37 PM Re: Are you ready for 30 years of cold? [Re: benjammin]
Byrd_Huntr Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 01/28/10
Posts: 1174
Loc: MN, Land O' Lakes & Rivers ...
Well said!
The man got the powr but the byrd got the wyng

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