Equipped To Survive Equipped To Survive® Presents
The Survival Forum
Where do you want to go on ETS?

Page 2 of 4 < 1 2 3 4 >
Topic Options
#273092 - 11/30/14 02:47 AM Re: Estimating risk [Re: Bingley]
chaosmagnet Offline
Sheriff
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/03/09
Posts: 3823
Loc: USA
Nice find Russ!

Top
#273093 - 11/30/14 03:34 AM Re: Estimating risk [Re: Bingley]
Nomad Offline
Addict

Registered: 05/04/02
Posts: 493
Loc: Just wandering around.
A few lifetimes ago I did risk analysis in a medical environment. The link below provides a reasonably easy to understand process that can be adapted to other situations.

The spreadsheet provides a comprehensive view of both the risks and mitigation's for a given threat matrix. It gives a fairly broad image of the issues in the medical world, but also suggests threats and mitigation's common to most threats.

I believe it is posted in the public domain as I found it with a google search.

I have used this system in communications (Grid Down Comms) planning as well as several other areas. It is a bit complex but therein is it's strength. Spend a morning with it and you will understand both the process and your particular threat situation.


edit: I had a long url here but it did not work. Probably because of the formatting.

instead google
Kaiser Hazard Vulnerability Analysis


Nomad.


Edited by Nomad (11/30/14 03:36 AM)
Edit Reason: replaced failed link
_________________________
...........From Nomad.........Been "on the road" since '97

Top
#273094 - 11/30/14 03:49 AM Re: Estimating risk [Re: Nomad]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL

Top
#273096 - 11/30/14 04:04 AM Re: Estimating risk / Regional Hazard Mitigation [Re: Bingley]
EMPnotImplyNuclear Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 09/10/08
Posts: 382
Sounds familiar smile
Originally Posted By: http://www.ready.gov/document/risk-assessment-table
Risk Assessment Table
ready.gov/business
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Impacts with Existing Mitigation (L, M, H) (11)
Asset or Operation Hazard Senario Oportunities for Probability Overall
at Risk (Location, Timing, Prevention (L, M, H)
(6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Hazard Rating
People Property Operations Environment Entity
Magitude) or Mitigation
Risk Assessment Table
INSTRUCTIONS
Column 1: Compile a list of assets (people, facilities, machinery, equipment, raw materials, finished goods, information technology, etc.)
in the left column.
Column 2: For each asset, list hazards (review the “Risk Assessment” page from Ready Business) that could cause an impact. Since
multiple hazards could impact each asset, you will probably need more than one row for each asset. You can group assets together as
necessary to reduce the total number of rows, but use a separate row to assess those assets that are highly valued or critical.
Column 3: For each hazard consider both high probability/low impact scenarios and low probability/high impact scenarios.
Column 4: As you assess potential impacts, identify any vulnerabilities or weaknesses in the asset that would make it susceptible to loss.
These vulnerabilities are opportunities for hazard prevention or risk mitigation. Record opportunities for prevention and mitigation in
column 4.
Column 5: Estimate the probability that the scenarios will occur on a scale of “L” for low, “M” for medium and “H” for high.
Columns 6-10: Analyze the potential impact of the hazard scenario in columns 6 - 10. Rate impacts “L” for low, “M” for medium and “H”
for high.
Column 8: Information from the business impact analysis should be used to rate the impact on “Operations.”
Column 10: The “entity” column is used to estimate potential financial, regulatory, contractual, and brand/image/reputation impacts.
Column 11: The “Overall Hazard Rating” is a two-letter combination of the rating for “probability of occurrence” (column 5) and the
highest rating in columns 6 – 10 (impacts on people, property, operations, environment, and entity).
Carefully review scenarios with potential impacts rated as “moderate” or “high.” Consider whether action can be taken to prevent the
scenario or to reduce the potential impacts.
ready.gov/business


http://myhazards.calema.ca.gov/ Find out if your home or business is at risk to fires, floods, or earthquakes. Then quickly create a plan to reduce your risks.

http://www.usgs.gov/natural_hazards/
http://www.weather.gov/briefing/
http://www.fema.gov/plan-prepare-mitigate
http://www.ready.gov/make-a-plan
http://www.ready.gov/plan-for-your-risks
http://www.ready.gov/considerations for age, disability, pets
http://www.ready.gov/be-informed
http://www.ready.gov/alerts
http://www.ready.gov/community-and-other-plans
http://emergency.cdc.gov/hazards-specific.asp
http://svi.cdc.gov/ ATSDR - The Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) - how vulnerable to disaster is your neighbourhood ?? resilience of communities when confronted by external stresses on human health, stresses such as natural or human-caused disasters, or disease outbreaks.

Top
#273098 - 11/30/14 08:35 AM Re: Estimating risk / Regional Hazard Mitigation [Re: Bingley]
Bingley Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/27/08
Posts: 1577
You're awesome, Russ! Thanks!

Top
#273099 - 11/30/14 03:07 PM Re: Estimating risk / Regional Hazard Mitigation [Re: Bingley]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Thank the folks at the Dogpile. cool My part was fairly simple. Search engines are really amazing.

Top
#273100 - 11/30/14 03:41 PM Re: Estimating risk [Re: Ian]
M_a_x Offline
Veteran

Registered: 08/16/02
Posts: 1204
Loc: Germany
Originally Posted By: Ian
I would like to add a caveat to the matrix style of assessment.

The methodology fails with high consequence hazards in low likelihood occurrence areas

If a risk is seen as life threatening it should always be graded as high (16 in the example above) if it can happen, whatever the chance of occurrence.

I cannot countenance risk assessing something that can kill without putting into place any and all accommodations that will reduce that risk level.


The method also works in this case. This risk assessment method helps you to assign limited resources to address risks in the most efficient way or assess the impact of changes. The method requires boundary conditions and some experience. If you have high consequence hazards, you take measures to lower the odds of occurrence to an acceptable level.
The method also gets a little warped when defining the consequence levels. A loss rate that may be considered excellent in a military assault may not be suitable to make the parents of a boy scout group happy.
_________________________
If it isn´t broken, it doesn´t have enough features yet.

Top
#273101 - 11/30/14 05:48 PM Re: Estimating risk [Re: M_a_x]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
Rational risk assessment is very interesting, but can anyone cite a real life instance where it made a difference?
_________________________
Geezer in Chief

Top
#273104 - 11/30/14 08:00 PM Re: Estimating risk [Re: Bingley]
gonewiththewind Offline
Veteran

Registered: 10/14/08
Posts: 1517
Where do I begin!

I use it constantly, but it is to ensure that I am aware of all the possible risks, and that I make the proper preparations. How many times it may have prevented a catastrophic incident it is impossible to tell, because I was prepared and avoided or mitigated it.

It also has helped in many instance in determining what the plan will actually be, such as which route to take (or avoid), whether the objective of the trip is even achievable or worth the potential risk. It aids in making good decisions.

I guarantee that almost all of you do it without even thinking about it every day, especially someone who spends as much time in the out doors as you, Hikermor. You have done it so much, and have so much experience at the activities you participate in, that you do it automatically. It becomes good judgment, or wisdom, or intuition. But people have to start somewhere, and going through the process is good training for the less experienced. The process is required, and must be elaborated on and thoroughly briefed, in certain career fields.

In some work, risk assessments are more about exploring the risks in order to mitigate them when you must do the most dangerous types of jobs. In search and rescue, the military, law enforcement, fire fighting, and some others you explore the risks that you know you will face and include them in your plan. It is the job of some to go directly into the risks. A good risk assessment means that everyone is aware and prepared for the worst case.

Top
#273105 - 11/30/14 08:18 PM Re: Estimating risk [Re: hikermor]
Bingley Offline
Veteran

Registered: 02/27/08
Posts: 1577
Originally Posted By: hikermor
Rational risk assessment is very interesting, but can anyone cite a real life instance where it made a difference?


Some people start AND END their prep with tons of guns and ammo. There are always these marauding gangs of cannibals, right? That's why you need to carry three different types of guns and 500 rounds of ammo when you bug out on foot. So I'd like to think persuading to do otherwise is a difference that rational risk assessment can make.

Maybe someone can tell us how to do irrational risk assessment?


Edited by Bingley (11/30/14 08:19 PM)

Top
Page 2 of 4 < 1 2 3 4 >



Moderator:  Alan_Romania, Blast, cliff, Hikin_Jim 
May
Su M Tu W Th F Sa
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31
Who's Online
0 registered (), 187 Guests and 61 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Newest Members
Explorer9, GallenR, Jeebo, NicholasMarshall, Yadav
5368 Registered Users
Newest Posts
My Doug Ritter Folder Attacked Me!
by brandtb
Yesterday at 10:50 PM
Bird Flu (H5N1) found in cattle -- are Humans next
by dougwalkabout
04/29/24 04:00 AM
People Are Not Paying Attention
by Bingley
04/28/24 03:24 AM
Corny Jokes
by wildman800
04/24/24 10:40 AM
USCG rescue fishermen frm deserted island
by brandtb
04/17/24 11:35 PM
Silver
by brandtb
04/16/24 10:32 PM
EDC Reduction
by Jeanette_Isabelle
04/16/24 03:13 PM
New York Earthquake
by chaosmagnet
04/09/24 12:27 PM
Newest Images
Tiny knife / wrench
Handmade knives
2"x2" Glass Signal Mirror, Retroreflective Mesh
Trade School Tool Kit
My Pocket Kit
Glossary
Test

WARNING & DISCLAIMER: SELECT AND USE OUTDOORS AND SURVIVAL EQUIPMENT, SUPPLIES AND TECHNIQUES AT YOUR OWN RISK. Information posted on this forum is not reviewed for accuracy and may not be reliable, use at your own risk. Please review the full WARNING & DISCLAIMER about information on this site.