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#268243 - 03/17/14 05:51 PM Re: Lost Malaysian Plane [Re: Ian]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
An article on CNN by a commercial pilot was interesting. He thinks that the vague info released so far could still be consistent with a 777 flying with the autopilot OFF and where the crew is incapacitated.

He says that the large course and altitude changes described so far could be consistent with the 777's automatic stabilization and auto throttle features as the plane encounters turbulence, wind direction changes, etc. that keep the plane aloft even when the autopilot is not engaged. (it sounds like the 777 is somewhat hard to crash unless you deliberately steer it into the ground)

This pilot says that until there is better evidence that the plane was flown deliberately and expertly--i.e. a straight line from point A to B, then a crisp turn, then a straight line to the next waypoint, and so on--after contact was lost, that the crew incapacitation theory is still in play.

Anyway, a fascinating new theory that I had not heard before that is based solely on the technology of the 777 itself. Doesn't explain the loss of contact, but that's also the still an open question.

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#268250 - 03/17/14 07:30 PM Re: Lost Malaysian Plane [Re: Arney]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5338
Loc: SOCAL
The more I learn about the B-777 the more impressed by the sophistication of the aircraft. Many ideas as to what actually happened will never get beyond the theory stage unless they get lucky and find the various Black Boxes.

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#268318 - 03/18/14 10:13 PM Re: Lost Malaysian Plane [Re: Russ]
MostlyHarmless Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 06/03/09
Posts: 982
Loc: Norway
A really simple, no nonsense theory:

1. Fire aboard

2. Pilots immediately turn towards nearest useable airport

3. Pilots immediately switches off main circuits of (almost) everything (including transponders). (Supposedly standard procedure if the fire is belived to be caused by a short circuit).

4. Pilot incapicated and/or communication equipment destroyed in fire

5. Nobody really knows -- except that any concious pilot will do his outmost to save everyone.

6. RIP

http://www.wired.com/autopia/2014/03/mh370-electrical-fire/

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#268374 - 03/20/14 06:05 AM Re: Lost Malaysian Plane [Re: Ian]
adam2 Offline
Addict

Registered: 05/23/08
Posts: 450
Loc: Somerset UK
Latest reports on BBC news website state that wreckage has been sighted, including one piece about 24 meters accross.
Looks likely to be the missing plane, though one must remember that previous reports of wreckage turned out to be unrelated.

edit to add link

BBC news


Edited by adam2 (03/20/14 07:58 AM)

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#268382 - 03/20/14 04:17 PM Re: Lost Malaysian Plane [Re: adam2]
RNewcomb Offline
Member

Registered: 04/19/12
Posts: 170
Loc: Iowa
Originally Posted By: adam2
Latest reports on BBC news website state that wreckage has been sighted, including one piece about 24 meters accross.
Looks likely to be the missing plane, though one must remember that previous reports of wreckage turned out to be unrelated.

edit to add link

BBC news


I read this the other day, and I though it was the best analysis out there. Apparently, there's some people who are saying that the left turn was programmed into the nav computer like 11 minutes before the final "Good Night" voice message, which tends to knock a hole in this theory.

But.. they've gotten the timing wrong on so many other things in this investigation, that I don't trust much of anything I am hearing now, and the reporting on CNN seems to be primarily ratings driven (It's a Hijacking, It's terrorism, it's pilot suicide.. etc.. etc..)

I just hope they find it soon, and closure and peace comes to these families.

Rod

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#268429 - 03/21/14 02:47 PM Re: Lost Malaysian Plane [Re: adam2]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Originally Posted By: adam2
Latest reports on BBC news website state that wreckage has been sighted, including one piece about 24 meters accross.

Sounds like another deadend despite multiple planes and ships converging on the area. Incredibly remote area of the planet.

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#268439 - 03/21/14 03:58 PM Re: Lost Malaysian Plane [Re: Arney]
AKSAR Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 08/31/11
Posts: 1199
Loc: Alaska
Originally Posted By: Arney
Sounds like another deadend despite multiple planes and ships converging on the area. Incredibly remote area of the planet.

Maybe a dead end, but maybe not.

It may sound like a lot of ships and planes, but the ocean is very big, and the weather down there sounds like it is rather gnarly. It big seas it would be very easy to sail or fly right by an object like that and not see it amoungst the whitecaps. Also, keep in mind that any debris is constantly moving with the current and wind. Where it was when spotted a few days ago by satellite is not where it is today. And where it is today it won't be tomorrow.
_________________________
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas any more."
-Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz

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#268442 - 03/21/14 05:31 PM Re: Lost Malaysian Plane [Re: RNewcomb]
Eugene Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/26/02
Posts: 2847
Originally Posted By: RNewcomb


I read this the other day, and I though it was the best analysis out there. Apparently, there's some people who are saying that the left turn was programmed into the nav computer like 11 minutes before the final "Good Night" voice message, which tends to knock a hole in this theory.


That could be a SOP. The guy I flew with had two radios and would look ahead and the next frequency he needed and program it into the non active radio until he was ready to switch to it then it was a simple flip of a switch. Likewise the "go around" button which would automatically set everything to the pre-set optimal position to abort a landing and go around for another pass rather than manually having to change the throttle, flaps, steer, etc all at the same time.

I'd bet the pilots do the same, they look ahead and the next landing spot and program into the computer then in an emergency all they would have to do is hit enter to run it. Then if no emergency you clear that one and program in the next and repeat as you travel. Much the same as when I travel I think ahead to the next restroom knowing my kids will need it as soon as I pass by the previous one.

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#268447 - 03/21/14 06:41 PM Re: Lost Malaysian Plane [Re: Eugene]
RNewcomb Offline
Member

Registered: 04/19/12
Posts: 170
Loc: Iowa
Originally Posted By: Eugene
Originally Posted By: RNewcomb


I read this the other day, and I though it was the best analysis out there. Apparently, there's some people who are saying that the left turn was programmed into the nav computer like 11 minutes before the final "Good Night" voice message, which tends to knock a hole in this theory.


That could be a SOP. The guy I flew with had two radios and would look ahead and the next frequency he needed and program it into the non active radio until he was ready to switch to it then it was a simple flip of a switch. Likewise the "go around" button which would automatically set everything to the pre-set optimal position to abort a landing and go around for another pass rather than manually having to change the throttle, flaps, steer, etc all at the same time.

I'd bet the pilots do the same, they look ahead and the next landing spot and program into the computer then in an emergency all they would have to do is hit enter to run it. Then if no emergency you clear that one and program in the next and repeat as you travel. Much the same as when I travel I think ahead to the next restroom knowing my kids will need it as soon as I pass by the previous one.


That makes a lot of sense actually... they have about 20 days left.. hope they find it or it's going to turn into a multi-year hunt I suspect.

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#268449 - 03/21/14 06:53 PM Re: Lost Malaysian Plane [Re: AKSAR]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Originally Posted By: AKSAR
...the ocean is very big, and the weather down there sounds like it is rather gnarly.

I hadn't thought about it much until I just saw a map showing both the possible N/NW flight path towards Uzbekistan/Kazakhstan, and then a flight path basically towards the South Pole where this potential wreckage was sighted by satellite. Almost 180 degrees different directions, and thousands of miles apart. Talk about a "wide search area"!

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