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#237350 - 12/13/11 09:38 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: NightHiker]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
I don't live in hurricane country, so I don't know, but how many folks go to a hotel/motel when they evacuate? Especially folks with kids, and with a busy hurricane season that could cause multiple evacuation warnings, that's a signficiant expense. And we're assuming car travel. Many folks may need air travel to get away (think of the mass exodus from Japan, particularly Tokyo, of mostly foreigners high tailing it out of the country due to radiation fears).

Let's not forget the psychological aspects of evacuating for many situations. There is a powerful need for folks to stay and "defend the homestead," especially if the disaster is not guaranteed to be deadly. Even with wildfires here in California, so many people who had ample lead time will not leave their homes until the flames are bearing down on their homes, even the ones who aren't actively fighting the fires. They have the car packed up and the keys in the ignition but they just need to wait until they absolutely have to leave.

I have also encountered the "cut'n run" desparaging attitude that some folks have regarding getting out of Dodge. Different culture, but to a large extent, that's basically why essentially only the foreigners were fleeing Tokyo, not the Japanese. It's a negative kind of peer pressure to abandoning their neighbors, friends, or fellow citizens.

Finally, there's also the "boy who cried wolf" aspect to repeatedly bugging out, which is going to happen when the practice is get-out-early-get-out-every-time. The vast majority of people tire of that very quickly and become even more resistant to bugging out in the future than if they had never done it the first time. Bugging out is often a hassle and an inconveniece even in the best of times so people don't want to do it, especially if you have children involved.

Just thinking about California where landslides and wildfires are typical reasons for needing to bug out. Just need to go a short distance to be safe and not usually for long, but even then, a lot of people don't want to.

The decision to stay or leave is not only--maybe not even primarily--a logical, rational choice for a great many people IMHO. Any arguments for or against early, speedy bugging out needs to take the psychological aspect into account, in addition to greater population-level limits and hazards to such a policy that ki4buc pointed out earlier.

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#237359 - 12/13/11 11:49 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: Arney]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
This discussion seems extremely hypothetical. Who among us has actually packed up and left in the face of an impending situation? What was your experience? Was it the right move? Would you do it again? What words of wisdom do you have or the rest of us?

On two occasions, faced with wildfires, I had the car packed up, ready to drive away. Didn't pull the trigger, though, so I have little to offer.
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#237360 - 12/13/11 11:55 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: hikermor]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Ditto. Two major wildfires, packed up the truck but was never required to evacuate -- evacuation was "optional". Regardless, the truck didn't leave the garage except to go to the gym. Evacuation go/no-go decisions are very situation driven. Cookie cutter approaches need not apply.
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Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
Okay, what’s your point??

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#237364 - 12/14/11 01:10 AM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: hikermor]
chaosmagnet Offline
Sheriff
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/03/09
Posts: 3821
Loc: USA
Originally Posted By: hikermor
This discussion seems extremely hypothetical. Who among us has actually packed up and left in the face of an impending situation? What was your experience? Was it the right move? Would you do it again? What words of wisdom do you have or the rest of us?


I evacuated to escape flooding. I left later than I should have and I had no kit at all in my car or otherwise.

We escaped unscathed. Leaving was the right thing to do, and I'd leave at least an hour earlier next time. I'd do much better now -- if I get to my car bare naked I'd still be better equipped than I was that day.

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#237366 - 12/14/11 12:14 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
Eugene Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/26/02
Posts: 2995
The area I'm in I don't have to worry so much about flood or wildfire or hurricanes, just smaller scale like tornados.
I have had to drop and run twice now though, both times its been a different kind of situation, one my father got hurt on the farm so we packed up thanksgiving and took it to their house and the second was when the hospital sent my grandmother home to pass away where she wanted to be.
So these were not large scale evacualtions but I have to keep myself ready to go for those kind of situations.
We have had a few small scale evacuations during bad stomrs where whole sections of the city would loose power for days. people would have to leave their homes and stay with others or in hotels to keep from freezing.

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#237371 - 12/14/11 05:09 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
LesSnyder Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 07/11/10
Posts: 1680
Loc: New Port Richey, Fla
Arney... this is just a guess on my part, and don't have any hard data, but like NightHiker commented about specific locations, most of the long time Florida residents that do evacuate don't go very far... Hurricane Andrew in 92, caused most communities to upgrade their building codes, and as evidenced by Charley in 04 that came ashore in Charlotte county as a Cat 4 even "manufactured homes" withstood the 140-150 mph winds with good accounting of themselves.

after each of the storms in 04/05 I did a lessons learned with my students, and those that evacuated typically went to friends or relatives within 15 miles...I live on the central Gulf coast about 35miles north of Tampa, about 3 miles inland at 34' elevation...those living on the barrier islands (especially with access only by a single bridge) and coastal areas threatened by storm surge just move inland

those living in the storm surge areas and locations subject to fresh water flooding are pretty much aware of the problems..we have excellent hurricane wind velocity warnings and most of the spaghetti models of predicted tracks are pretty darn good when they get in the Gulf... 04/05 was unusual in that Polk county which is inland had all 4 cross through

I think that most share my bug out requirement...I plan to stay for a 3 and move to a more hardened structure (relatives place) for a 4 or 5, but not too far...


Edited by LesSnyder (12/14/11 05:12 PM)

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#237373 - 12/14/11 05:18 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: NightHiker]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 7705
Loc: southern Cal
Originally Posted By: NightHiker
it's time to run when you realize that it's too dangerous to stay where you are.


I am witness to an excellent example of this principle: my father-in-law's journey to the USA. In 1919, his mother to be was in training at the Russian Czarist court as a future lady in waiting. Events occurred and she and her husband decided to leave town, traveling across Siberia with the White Russian Army. Along the way, closely pursued by their PHRASECENSOREDPOSTERSHOULDKNOWBETTER. adversaries, they intentionally wrecked the sled containing the family jewels (literally), as they crossed a frozen lake; their pursuers halted to pick up the goodies, thereby allowing their escape. Sewing needles were invaluable as trade items for food in remote Siberian villages on numerous occasions.

My father-in-law was born in a small village near Ulan Bator, Mongolia in 1920, christened as Boris Bekaravich. In the next few years he traveled through Vladivostok, Singapore, and Seattle to arrive at Hollywood High, Los Angeles, where he double dated with soon-to-be movie stars and became a second lieutenant in WWII, now with a name now anglicized to Harry. Among other things in a long and eventful life, he was a sound engineer on the Ozzie and Harriet show. His mother sewed for MGM, notably working on the costumes for Gone With the Wind. Of course I feel his greatest achievement was raising the most beautiful and wonderful lady in the entire world, but I am not an impartial evaluator. We lost him a few years ago, and we still miss him...

Lessons to be learned. When bugging out, take items that will be useful for trade, and be prepared to take drastic action to secure your major objectives. Who knows how long the road will be?

Of course, traveling inland a few hundred miles to avoid a hurricane may not require effort of this magnitude...
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#237376 - 12/14/11 05:42 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: NightHiker]
bsmith Offline
day hiker
Addict

Registered: 02/15/07
Posts: 589
Loc: ventura county, ca
Originally Posted By: NightHiker
it's time to run when you realize that it's too dangerous to stay where you are.

talk about hitting the nail on the head.
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#237378 - 12/14/11 06:02 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: NightHiker]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5357
Loc: SOCAL
Originally Posted By: NightHiker
...This thread is doing a good job of showing why there's no universal best response as to when get out of town. The closest that I can come up with is that it's time to run when you realize that it's too dangerous to stay where you are.
... but pack and make preparations to leave at the earliest opportunity consistent with not overly disrupting your daily life. Getting the truck packed when a wildfire is still days away is consistent with this view. Don't wait until the flames are visible, and you're breathing smoke and embers.
_________________________
Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
Okay, what’s your point??

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#237379 - 12/14/11 06:47 PM Re: Best response to always get out of town? [Re: dweste]
Eugene Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 12/26/02
Posts: 2995
On many forums the debate goes on weather to bug in or bug out, people will argue either way and I try to remind them that its situational and to be prepared you need to plan for either. Likewise some get caught up in making sure they have a PSK and a GHB and a BOB and INCH, and whatever other acronyms they can come up with.
I simply have varying layers of gear and depending on the situation I'm faced with may utilize it as one or more of the acronyms. My "go bag" for example I'll grab and take to the basement during a tornado alert because it has items such as lights that can help out in those situations.
Same with if we would need to bug out or evacuate, depending on the time or situation there are different layers of gear we may take. A suitcase may be our 'bug out bag' for a given situation.


Edited by Eugene (12/14/11 10:19 PM)

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