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#232605 - 09/23/11 12:28 AM Re: FEMA rethinks its approach... [Re: Andy]
Pete Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 02/20/09
Posts: 1126
The combo of a major quake and Santa Ana winds would be a very bad combination for Los Angeles. Not only because of the risk from natural phenomena and firestorms, but also because as you know a few nut-jobs seem to show up every year and start man-made fires at that time. Fortunately, statistics are probably on our side. The chances seem unlikely - although far from being impossible.

I have the actual shakemaps that have been calculated by USGS scientists for the rupture on the Southern San Andreas. You can find them online. I enlarged them and printed them digitally. I studied them carefully for quite a while, and decided that the results are NOT encouraging. USGS simulated a 7.8 magnitude quake for the San Andreas, so real results would be worse if the Big One is stronger.

Pete2

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#232606 - 09/23/11 12:53 AM Re: FEMA rethinks its approach... [Re: Pete]
hikermor Offline
Geezer in Chief
Geezer

Registered: 08/26/06
Posts: 5716
Loc: southern Cal
On the other hand, we might just as likely experience the vaunted Big One during one of our fairly common winter soakers, which will dampen everything down quite nicely.

I just love the unpredictability of quakes, especially since we can track storms and hurricanes so exquisitely.
_________________________
Geezer in Chief

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