Due to recent events the subject of earthquakes has been on my mind, and Lono's post here set me to thinking if there would be any way to know that the expected "big one" might be around the corner, and so to set yourself in a good place for it beforehand.

Now I know there's no sure way of predicting earthquakes (yet!), and I have read this ETS thread that includes the subject. What I'm wondering is, if foreshocks are common before most major earthquakes, then would it make sense for people living in the area of an anticipated big one to do a mini bug out to, say, a wide open field or something whenever there's a minor quake felt? It wouldn't work in California, of course, and most or all would end up just being surprise drills, and I know that foreshocks can come months beforehand. So maybe not. But then again if we know the big one is coming, and if there was some sort of statistical time window within which most foreshocks operated before a major quake.....hmm, dunno. Just wondering.

The second thought I had was to have a plan to do the same when a pet is exhibiting a significant unexplained change in behavior over the course of several days. Again, "false alarms" would probably happen, but if there's a chance, and a person doesn't mind unplanned drills, then would anyone consider it?

Part of where this is coming from for me is that I have an anecdotal story on the matter. As a teenager I had a pet rat that I was quite close to (I'm sure you can see where this is going). I think I had had it for over a year when one day I noticed it was not interested in playing, in fact, I couldn't coax it to poke its head out from under its "nest" at all. It wasn't even tempted by its favorite foods. When I brought it out, instead of exploring and being affectionate it would immediately try to hide. I could not interest it in anything; it seemed very scared.

The next day things were the same, and the next and the next. Like any responsible person with a pet I was becoming worried and observed it carefully. As far as I could tell it was not eating at all, and would only come out of hiding for a very brief time to drink some water before burrowing into hiding again. Presently I decided something must be very wrong and asked my dad if we could take it to the vet. My dad stalled a bit, and as the days went on I became more persistent until he finally agreed that I could call in.

The next day the Nisqually earthquake hit my area.

To the best of my memory the rat had been exhibiting this behavior on a constant basis for around 2 weeks leading up to the quake. The change in behavior is not the kind of thing that could have been missed, and gave plenty of advance warning. Once the aftershocks and everything had passed my rat returned to normal behavior.

But that's not all. Some time later, I seems like it must have been about a year or less, my rat began exhibiting the exact same change in behavior. I went and told my family, "there's going to be another earthquake." They believed me enough to take a few precautions with some heirloom items, and I made my own preparations. I actually have a dated journal entry saying that there would be another earthquake in my area soon. And about a week later it happened, I think it was a 4 or something like that, maybe a 5, I wish I could find the info on it again to say for sure. In any case it was just barely big enough to make the news and for most people to feel it.

After that I decided the next time it happens I'd be calling news stations and such to inform them of the prediction, but rats don't live very long and that obviously never happened. Still, it makes me wonder if that might actually be a viable way to get advanced warning of larger earthquakes and leave the area before it happens, take an impromptu vacation or something.

This is all just some thinking aloud. I'm not currently in a position to do any of these things, but I was wondering what you all thought of these ideas.

Many people in earthquake country do absolutely nothing, while some of us try to take reasonable precautions against what is essentially an unpredictable event. It makes sense to protect your heirloom items and keep prybars and shutoff tools close at hand, ready to use. Don't forget to bolt down your water heater, and keep your gas tank filled. Then get on with life.

I suppose I actually do practice mini bug outs, because I am hiking, backpacking, or bike touring as much as possible. Now I can add another justification. It seems to be working - I was out of town (and the house) for both Northridge (1994) and Loma Prieta (1989). Maybe my habits are as good as a rat's in predicting quakes. After all, there are people who see a lot of other similarities....

I know there are a lot of commonsense overall precautions, but I was actually referring to the more immediate response to when a major disaster might be expected to hit your area, for example with hurricane preparedness there is the long-term, 'It'll happen someday" preps such as WaterBOB and a plan for covering the windows, and there's the "It's coming" preps such as actually filling up the WaterBOB and covering your windows, evacuating, and whatnot. I understand that with earthquakes the "It'll happen someday" preps are all that most people do. I'm just wondering if there might be some "Its coming" preps, i.e., if you lived in Seattle and had a pet rat that was exhibiting this very distinct behavioral change for several days on end non-stop, you might consider that now is a good time to spend a week or two backpacking out of state.

A less disruptive way to heed predictions would be to have an RV in the driveway or elsewhere on your property. Some people have enormous houses that take up most of the lot but many could safely have an RV in the driveway or backyard and not have to worry about the house collapsing and burying the entire property.

Then if you have a hunch, or prediction, that an earthquake is imminent you can at least sleep in the RV for a week or two without fear of rafters falling on your head. You could still chance a shower and meal prep in your home, or even a couple hours watching TV.

That only protects you at home. There's still the matter, for many people, of being at a workplace or elsewhere when a quake occurs. Most peops can't just telecommute when they feel like it. But while at work they could at least take care to have a "get home bag" or BOB within easy reach so they could grab it and run for safety (or dive under their desk) the moment an earthquake begins.

After 9/11 and the subsequent anthrax attacks I never again went to a meeting out of my office without my purse. I have considered the probability that DC will experience other, bigger attacks in the future. Perhaps it is prudent to leave now, or when news reports indicate worldwide tensions are increasing or DHS issues an alert. But I'm unlikely to evacuate because of a tenuous possibility or if a rodent is acting odd.

Let me rephrase that, I actually am prone to vacate the house if I see a rat -- but only long enough to call an exterminator.

It's always a good time to spend a week backpacking. That's my point. Now I can add another rationalization.

Why would you automatically want to leave your house? I have a one story wood frame house, the type that is most likely to resist shaking. Even if damaged, I can pull supplies from the rubble and set up camp in my backyard. If you live in an apartment complex, your scenario will be different.

Let me try this on you, Ann - can I suggest a mental exercise that has helped me to relax and enjoy life, and not worry so much about impending disasters? Instead of worrying about the disaster that may happen at any minute, ask yourself, if a disaster happened in [2 weeks], what would you want to do be better prepared? Put that hypothetical disaster on your mental calendar, 12pm 2 weeks from today, like a dentist appointment, or a kid's play date, and do your best to get ready. I do this all the time, because my personal state of readiness fluctuates - is my car gassed up, is my cell phone charged, where did I put my crowbar anyway? You can make it your task to improve your readiness by removing potential broken glass from your living area, adding food and water to your stores, setting aside a pair of shoes for underneath your bed (where you may want them in the middle of the night). Emergency preparedness folks have tried to embed this kind of preparedness in a monthly calendar of tasks - food and water in month one, out of state contact in month two, etc - and that's good too. To me the biggest benefit is in breaking the work down into simple tasks, getting them done, and removing big worries from my mind along the way. If I have food and water put away I worry less. Same with first aid supplies, clothing, shelter, all the way down to cribbing and extrication gear. It doesn't matter whether a rat or my dog or my Aunt Rosie could predict earthquakes, if it happens it happens, I'm as prepared as I can be, modulo what I still need to do in the next couple weeks. It can help to remove performance anxiety - the same sense I used to get going up on stage as a kid, and doing a part in a play. If I took the time to learn my lines, it wasn't so bad. And there are probably still some parts I could play from memory now.

Anyway, food for thought - we don't need to know when the big one will happen, I think just after it does happen to us, we'll want to be able to say, yes, we were as prepared as possible, and get on with surviving and helping others. And hey, if I'm crushed in the Seattle Fault quake, which I probably will be, whoever digs into my house is going to find a whole lot of really, really neat stuff to live off of!

Ann,

As a person who has studied and followed earthquake prediction science for most of my career, your experience is not uncommon, but in a larger sense useless for prediction. Occassionaly an animal will "predict" an earthquake or two, but the vast majority of them can only do it a few percent of the time. If you still had your rat, and were living in exactly the same place there is a chance that it would predict the next one also. Change any of those things and the probability goes from 1 in 10 to 1 in 100,000 or worse, usually MUCH worse. As for foreshocks, they have been tried and tried but they are just as often absent and even more often are not foreshocks at all, just small earthquakes.

When we have a prediction method that consistantly gets to 1 in 5 I would (I live away from earthquakes) seriously consider acting on that information. Until then, I just consider them upredictable and plan accordingly (I live in FL) ;), Select my location to minimize damage, buy or build my house to reduce failure, be prepared for the worst. Just like I do for hurricanes.

Respectfully,

Jerry

Another way of looking at it - what are the chances you will die in an earthquake? Even living in southern California, they are statistically minimal. I am far more likely to perish in an auto accident that in an earthquake. For that matter, cancer, or various other life style related syndromes are more likely to claim me than a quake.

I try and live a reasonable lifestyle, keep my weight in check, and stay physically active (backpacking again!). I would improve my chances more by buying a modern, safety enhanced auto than by spending the dough on some exotic earthquake measure. If I am trim and fit that is also an asset in earthquake survival and in life in general.

Of course, I always have the option of moving to a locality where earthquakes are not likely. I am always amused at people who take a U-Haul to Kansas after a shaker. I don't think that swapping earthquakes for tornadoes is any improvement. I know people who won't live in California because of quakes. That's fine - life is a series of choices.

Hmm.

Lets get one thing straight: I'm not worried about earthquakes.

Studying up survival things, analyzing it, thinking through scenarios and trying think up different ways to survive things is an enjoyable mental exercise for me. It's my idea of fun. A hobby.

My actual practice of anything preparedness-related is extremely limited for reasons that I'd rather not go into right now. But, my imagination is unhindered.

And maybe that's all this is, imagination. Sorry to bother you guys.

Yep, really nothing to worry about. Just be as prepared as you think prudent. I'm also in SOCAL and we feel the occasional quake. We're far enough from the major faults that I feel comfortable that this house will survive a big one.

That said, the SOCAL infrastructure could/will take a major hit. So the issue for me will be the days without electricity and water. We maintain more than a few days water and while we will possibly lose food that needs to be cold, we won't starve for a month or so.

How would that change if I had a pet cockatoo or dog that could sense an earthquake and reliably give a few days warning? . . . Hmmm

I wouldn't go on vacation. I might ensure that the natural gas was secured and that I topped off the water supply and filled my truck's fuel tank. Max out on everything I use anyway -- standard preps for when I know a wildfire is on the loose. Then I'd just sit back and wait for it. Like you said: "I'm not worried about earthquakes."

Hi Ann,

Having worked in the laboratory animal science field for over 35 years, I am not quick to dismiss your experiences/observations with respect to animal behavior. While my involvement is more laboratory related with respect to animal disease detection, I do have anecdotal experience that makes me stand up and take notice, when alerted to changes in animal behavior. More than once, our lab would be alerted by supervisors/managers of an animal facility that their animal care staff were noting changes in feeding and/or breeding behaviors. Generally, within weeks we detected the presence of some infectious agent. Now, these pre-detection behavioral changes might be expected as the animals were experiencing physical changes in response to a disease process, so this is not quite the same as changes in animal behavior predicting a natural event However, I do believe many animals have more developed senses and can detect subtle changes in their environment.

I have personal anecdotal experience with the heighten sense of detection exhibited by many animals. In my role as an EMS provider, I and my partners once responded to a call for chest pain in a middle-aged gentleman. We arrived on the scene and found the man alert and oriented complaining of sub-sternal chest pain. His wife had placed their dog in a nearby area which had one of those extendable child-gates to keep him corralled. The dog was quite calm and just sat there watching us and did not appear to be upset with us for being in his home. We had placed the patient on an EKG monitor which was normal and were continuing our examination, interview and treatment when all of sudden the dog let out this blood-curdling yelp/howl which I will never forget. Within 5-10 seconds of the dog howling, the patient went into cardiac arrest. While we were able to successfully treat the patient, I will never forget that call and how the dog knew his owner had a cardiac event before the EKG machine even registered a change.

I just saw on the news, that a new (at least new based upon the news story) earthquake detection system based upon the detection of the P wave which travels faster than the destructive S wave is being used in parts of California to give a 15-60 second alert to allow evacuation from buildings. Perhaps there are other more subtle waves that are virtually undetectable by current technology, that animals have the ability to detect. Just look at the highly sensitive sense of smell exhibited by dogs.

I would not worry about whether or not your imagination might or might not be in play. If you feel some type of early alert might be afforded by the use of a pet rat, I would go for it. At minimum, you have a pet and at best you might have an early warning alert.

Just my 2 cents-
Pete

The above listed website also offers email and text message alerts if one is so inclined.

Thanks for the post Ann.

We live in potential/active earthquake country also and I have always wondered if science could ever have the technology of being able to preemptively and accurately predict earthquakes minutes before they occur. If this was possible, there would be many lives saved as it would give most people time to evac buildings etc.

As for animals predicting earthquakes, I have only one near similar experience. In 2001, we had a small tremor which was enough to shake the house and rattle windows but not do any damage. My brother's dog who had been sleeping on the floor some distance away, all of a sudden jumped up and and got two nervous barks off before we felt the tremor. In all the excitement (and subsequent run for the outdoors and potential safety) we did not think much of the dog incident until later when we were talking about it. At the time immediately before the tremor, we were not paying any attention to the dog, we could only estimate that he jumped up maybe 3-4 seconds before us humans felt the start of the tremor.

Was it only coincidental that the dog jumped up then barked before the tremor? Can't say for sure one way or the other but sure makes one think...

I too live in EQ country. I've been through several very palpable earthquakes. Before they hit, I did hear some rumbling on the larger ones. It's conceivable that an animal might hear a low wavelength (or high) sound that a human ear wouldn't pick up. That sound might have some property that allows it to propagate faster than the audible sounds that you and I can hear. Just speculating.

HJ

I agree with signing up for getting text message alerts for earthquakes. You can customize the alerts based on magnitude, region, time of day, etc. For those of you with an "i" appliance, I also really like the QuakeWatch app. Gives up to the minute earthquake/tsunami information based on USGS, EMSC data.

I have lived in earthquake country for 33 years total. I've experienced at least 15 noticeable earthquakes at home. I even experienced the big quake of 1989 at home. It was scary, but not that scary because I was at home. Extra water, food, tools, gas, etc., that's the boring preparation you can do at home.

The big issue for me is being prepared while away from home. For example, what do I do if the bridge I'm on collapses 100 yards in front of me? What do I do if I'm in an open field and there's a big quake?

There are so many scenarios that can happen away from home that are more likely to put me into a truly dire survival situation. I definitely can appreciate the effort of the original poster!

The biggest problem with using animals as early warning, earthquake or medical crisis, is their lack of language skills. Strange behavior might have any number of explanations. Indigestion, a potential mate next-door or outside, the Big One, even a reaction to you having a bad day.

It has been noted that police dogs can often be triggered to 'alert' as a response to their handlers body language. People see this with their dag when they note that their dog likes and dislikes pretty much the same people their master does. Careful study shows that the dogs aren't analyzing the people. Rather, the dog is cluing off the masters reaction. If master is relaxed and happy the dog is relaxed and happy. If master is tense and suspicious the dog follows suit. The point being that animals often use their handlers as their main input. The results you get from your detector animal may just end up being its reaction to you.

There was Joey the budgie but of course a bird with a much wider vocabulary would be much more useful.

Warning - the second link may cause offense.

It is an interesting mental exercise.

If my dog was any judge, not all earthquakes are the same [my interpretation]. Twice, he paced and whined and fussed for no obvious reason, and both times there was a mild earthquake within a couple of days. WE HAVE AN EARTHQUAKE-PREDICTION DOG!

Then the Sylmar Earthquake hit in 1971, with a magnitude of 6.6. It destroyed two hospitals, a dam, a couple of freeway interchanges, collapsed a dozen freeway overpasses, and killed over 50 people. The dog didn't see/hear/feel this one coming at all, although he was slightly ahead of me going out the door after the fact, and he was twitchy afterward (weren't we all!).

What was the difference? Did the Sylmar quake not give warning? Or did it not give the same kind of warning that the others did?

I, too, live in the PNW, and if I somehow thought there was going to be an earthquake, leaving would be rather pointless. Everything I own is here. I would just pitch the old tent in the backyard and sleep out there, and pick up the pieces afterward.

It WOULD be nice to know, though. Right now the dogs fuss when there's a raccoon on the roof. *sigh*

Sue

Unfortunately, Paul the Octopus has passed away. He could have made a very tidy sum consulting on the earthquake circuit.

In that case you have to rely on your EDC. For a while I put a lot of effort, perhaps too much effort, on trying to come up with an urban survival kit I could have on my person when the answer was in my EDC, not a "kit." Once I realized that EDC is the answer, the question of what I should EDC came to mind. That was quickly answered by a simple concept. Using a word processor, I listed all of my concerns in an urban environment and under each concern I listed items I can have on my person at all times that would address those concerns. Some items can address more than one concern so I have those items listed more than once, once under each respective concern. I've updated my EDC based on this list and later updated that list. I have the list saved on my computer so I can go over it when needed.

Jeanette Isabelle

Earthquake predictions are still far to unreliable to take such measures as bugging out prior to the event.

However, there are some patterns. I've noticed that epicenters tend to "walk" down the faultline, and after the Mexicali quake I knew that we would be getting a bunch. You can't release that much load from one section of the fault without it being taken up somewhere else.

1) Basic preparations, like having all tall funiture strapped to the wall and earthquake insurance. It ain't the quake that I really fear, it's getting squashed under 500 lbs of bookshelf and contents.

2) Have procedures in place (water, gas, electricity, structure checks after the shaking stop)

3) Now would be a really good time to keep a wrecking bar handy. Also, keep the car tanks and spare water topped off.

I have been through a bunch of 5+ pointers, and outside of falling shelves and ceiling lamps, I got through them unscathed.

I don't worry about predicting earthquakes. I can spend my time more efficiently by working on things over which I have more control. My EDC bag, I'll work on that. I would like to add more rope/cordage, my fluorescent bandana, and some band-aids! Some current items would have to go...decisions, decisions.

I Certainly wont think Someone is Crazy for having an Idea to, Serve the Purpose of Warning of a Disaster!We are Too Premature,Technology wise, for the prediction of pending earthquakes!The worse that could happen is,"My experiment went Awry!"& Wouldn't that be Similar to our History,ie. Canary in a CoalMine?"Sorry folks,I was wrong,I guess the air isn't Bad in Here,Since my canary is Still Alive!"or"May you be Blessed,Sir Christopher,Should you Not return,We will assume"You've fallen from The earth!":)

A lot of good can come from a careful examination of the home for objects that might fall or get displaced and crush or trap someone. Bookcases, refrigerators, file cabinets, water heaters are just the beginning of the list of things that might be issues. Sometimes these can be fastened to the wall or floor to keep them from shifting or falling over. Getting crushed is just one of the risks.

A file cabinet that falls in front of a closed door effectively blocks the door. The bookshelf in the hall can make a hall into a major obstacle.

Substitutions can also be useful. Substituting two four-foot tall bookshelves eats up floor space but gets you more shelf space at far less risk if they do topple. Remember it isn't just the shelves falling over. The complete works of Marcel Proust, leather bound and in the original French, hurts if it falls on you. Falling from four feet is easier to take than from seven or eight.

Even stuff that wouldn't seem like an issue can nail you. A Hummel collection that falls and shatters can shred your feet and immobilize you. Even if it does stop you exposed wounds in time of limited sanitation is an invitation to a major infection. Broken glass can puncture lighter soled shoes.

Doing something as simple as making sure you know where everything is can help save time and build confidence.

People who are really running scared have been know to sleep in a tent in their backyard, or a nearby park. A tent of flat ground, ideally bedrock, is pretty safe. No worry about the roof falling on you. Worse case you can cut your way out with a pen knife.

I'll throw in some thoughts from here at Los Angeles. By the way - you would think that the majority of people in Southern California would be ready for the Big One. But in actual fact they are not. This problem is also the Number One hazard from a giant earthquake in L.A. The problem is not just the damage to the city, but rather how the civilian population reacts after the earthquake. Los Angeles has few sources of fresh water, and not a lot of good road access (esp. if major freeways are down). So that means that in 2-3 days after a major (widespread) quake, when huge numbers of people starting running out of drinkable water, things could turn pretty ugly.

Setting that issue aside for now, there have been a number of excellent thoughts expressed on this thread:
1. Put some earthquake supplies in your vehicle.
2. Have a good plan to build a makeshift toilet (something that stops contamination getting into ground water).
3. Be prepared to sleep outside for extended periods of time
4. If you've got pets - how are you going to feed them and get them water?
5. The more food storage and water storage you've got - then the less reasons you have for being out on the streets. This reduces your chances of unfriendly encounters a lot.

I'd like to bring up one of the major challenges. Although death is unlikely, debilitating injuries are certainly possible. Open wounds, compound fractures of limbs, skull fractures, burns, etc. These kinds of things can cause a lot of pain. It is reasonable to think that good medical attention may not exist for weeks. And pain medication for severe injuries is not allowed for civilians. So there are real problems related to wound care, prevention of infection, pain experienced over long periods of time, and lack of sleep.

other Pete

My Observations say Otherwise,I think Most people here in SoCal & Los Angeles are,Quite prepared for Earthquake's,Whether it be Large or small!The Bldg Codes are some of The Strictest in The nation&Our Road system aside from The FWY is Huge & Vast,There are many useable Alternative Highways & Roads,That I've used when the FWY system was down in '94!Water?Where in All of The United States is There a Large City,Where Water is NOT brought in by Pipe?Tsunami is Something Los Angeles is Not prepared for,though we have Marked areas in the coastal regions depicting whether,You are in a Tsunami Zone,or Are leaving a Tsunami Zone!One more Observation:In this day & age here in L.A.,There seems to be a Widespread Proliferation of Pain Medication,Especially in The Civilian Ranks,So Black market,Pot Stores or Otherwise,I don't think for a second,It's going to be an Issue!

Rich ... I hope your optimism turns out to be correct, and that my pessimism is unfounded. Seriously! But in the neighborhoods where I live, I don't see many people keeping their earthquake survival kits up-to-date. What i do see - is a lot of families who are extremely busy coping with daily life. I think a lot of folks will be depending on what's in their kitchen pantry. That's a hit-or-miss approach to survival.

I'm lucky because I live on top of a local hill. There's not much tsunami risk up there. Tidal waves are a potential problem for people in low-lying areas, like the beachfront at Hermosa Beach.

When I talk about "pain relief" ... I'm not talking about trivial pain. Alcohol and marijuana are not going to do anything to cut down the level of serious pain that comes from badly fractured limbs or crushed body parts. Some countries allow people to buy codeine over the shelf - which is at least a start in the right direction (though even codeine is not great against serious pain. But it can relieve bad toothaches and migraines - which helps!). I'm not sure there is any really good answer to the pain issue .... but this is going to be a problem for injured people.

The same concerns also affect the issue of infections. Our first-aid systems in the USA all assume that patients can be seen by a doctor in a few hours. When I went through EMT training (many years ago) the joke was that the entire treatment protocol always boiled down to 2 steps ... "oxygen and transport". But this is unrealistic in a major city affected by a widescale disaster. A large-scale emergency requires a treatment protocol where open wounds need to be properly sterilized and dressed - to seriously reduce risks of infection. This is a legitimate survival concern. But standard first-aid training does not cover it at all.

other Pete

CERT certainly opened my eyes to the issues of injuries after a local disaster, especially the fact that we're essentially on our own for 24-96 hours. Imagine putting up your neighbors in your house for 5 days (my aunt says fish and house guests start to smell after 3 days, under the best circumstances); now imagine that they have compound fractures, skull fractures, lacerations, crush injuries, and round the clock medical needs. Nasty. CERT doesn't really give you many tools to cope with all that, but at least tells you what may happen - its up to you to take Wilderness First Aid and any other training that can begin to prepare you to provide medical care for that first 72 hours.

The other items on Pete's list are all valid - if you have pets, make sure you have a supply of pet food, first aid and other necessaries for them. In other words, keep at least a week's supply in inventory and circulate through that. Food, water, toilets - all can be covered ahead of time, if you make the commitment.

It all requires some forethought and preparations for sure, but its not so daunting once you start to think things through, and if you're lucky, organize some of your neighbors to do the same. And there's one advantage, if you are doing the planning, maybe you can plan NOT to host the neighborhood morgue in your garage. Hope for a better spot than that.

Well ... the big earthquake in Japan was a vivid reminder for us to get our act together out here in Los Angeles. My wife and I will be holding a special earthquake drill for our family tomorrow night. It's important that our kids know what to do. In addition, we will be adding to our stored water and food, and i will add extra cooking fuel and blankets to our earthquake supplies. Extra meds and bandages too.

The Japanese earthquake is relevant to us for a couple of reasons. Since the 2004 tsunami that hit Thailand & Indonesia, there have been a lot of big earthquakes around the Pacific rim. I can think of big quakes in Chile, Baja, New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan. To me, this seems to point to the fact that the tectonic plates under the Pacific are undergoing significant adjustments in their forces. How much longer before we see some sort of major adjustment on the American side of these plates?? I have to believe it's getting closer.

Second, a lot of people tend to equate earthquakes in L.A. with shaking of the land (above sea level). But we are also potentially vulnerable to a major undersea quake, just like they had in Japan. I would venture to guess that the Japanese are better prepared for tsunamis than we are - by several orders of magnitude. We will take some very serious damage if we get an 8.9 earthquake located off our coastline. It won't affect my house personally, because I live on top of a hill near the beach. But i am starting to think about having some rescue gear available for this kind of thing. I can drive down to the beach in about 5 minutes. It would be pretty easy to throw some gear into my pickup and get down there immediately after a serious tsunami incident. Any suggestions? ... I'll consider them.

cheers,
other Pete

I commend your civic minded attitude. Just don't forget that tsunamis often come in sets and it can be quite a while before they have all finished making landfall. So, be careful not to be caught by a second tsunami if we ever have a Big One off the coast here in SoCal.

I don't know how accurate the report was, but one news article said that there were two large tsunamis that hit the Sendai area--first one about 23 feet and the second one was about 30 feet tall! Some of the videos are quite unsettling to watch, with cars and even entire small buildings picked up and swept away by the tsunamis on live TV. I can only pray that there weren't people still inside.

Hey Pete,If I were you,I'd stay put on the Hill & Observe from above,also If we have "The Big One",Liquefaction is Going to be a Major Concern,Especially on The Hills of Baldwin Hills/Westchester/ Manhattan/Redondo/Palos Verdes.I would attempt to research the areas where,there are Oil Derricks/Rigs,As they are basically probes as well as Vents,& The possibility is there for Early Warning of Liquefaction Activity!If there is liquefaction activity below the Hills,Then in theory the hills can slide as their support base is/has shifted.Wave to me,I'm down there somewhere probably floating around on My Surfboard!:)

Arney & Rich

Appreciate the comments. That was one of the things I learned from the Japanese disaster today - that the tsunami can be a series of waves. The first wave is not necessarily the largest. That will be important to keep in mind. I was also watching the footage of the tsunami going through Iwanuma. Very hard to avoid a wall of water that's as huge as that - esp. when it is flowing across flat land. If you find any longer TV footage of that wave, please post a link.

Rich - apparently your knowledge of liquefaction is greater than mine. I thought it only operated on a local scale, for buildings built on sandy soils. You seem to be saying that it can affect whole geological regions. Hope you will explain more when you can.

And by the way - we've got three major oil refineries within about 6 miles of my home (El Segundo Chevron refinery, the Torrance refinery, and the big refinery near Signal Hill beside Long Beach). Based on the Japanese footage, it's a good bet that these refineries could be on fire after a quake like that.

other Pete

As far as first aid goes, I would think that you'd mostly encounter a lot of lacerations, bruises, abrasions, and fractures among survivors. That tsunami is going to pick up people and debris and just turn into a giant meat grinder, smashing everything together before finally receding. Maybe major blunt force trauma to the head, but that's not something you can do much about in the field.

It's possible you may encounter quite a few injured, so you should gird yourself for the possibility of doing some triage and having to decide whom to treat first. Not that I've ever had to do that, but that could be pretty tough to do. I've had a bit of triage training, but really, could I pass up a kid? That's a tough one.

+1 with what you said Arney.
I realized after watching those video's that the wave is not just made of water. It truly is a "meat grinder". That's a bad way to go. I suppose a rescue and recovery effort boils down to finding whoever is still floating in the muddy mess, figuring out how to drag them to shore, and starting basic first-aid. I guess I might need a long rope in my kit :-)

other Pete

I would suggest a training course before jumping into the truck. I've forgotten how many wilderness first aid courses my wife and I have had, and we're signed up for another one next month - 2-day training on a weekend. We live in the San Francisco Bay Area, and we figure we'll be in a wilderness for the first days, maybe weeks, after a quake.

I haven't seen any rescue courses vis-a-vis tsunamis. Check with your fire department and see what they say about training. Our fire dept. is very active in teaching search and rescue and first aid for CERT volunteers.

The first thing they teach, by the way, is not to become a victim yourself. If you jump in the truck and head down to the beach, you may be greeted by a 3d or 4th surge if the tsunami hasn't finished yet. Sea rescue is a perilous undertaking even for the well-trained and qualified.

Another major Concern-Hypothermia!That water rushing in is from,The Deep Ocean,So It's gonna' be Frigid at Best! It's Still Winter Here,As well as Japan!

Based on what I've seen from the Japanese video's, i'm not sure anymore that it is even possible to rescue people from the incoming tsunami. I think Arney got it right. Once that wave picks up debris, it becomes a meat grinder. Probably the only people who can survive are those who can climb above the wave, or get inside something really solid (like a big rig).

One of my big takeaways from this incident in Japan is this ... don't expect any outside help during the first 24 hours of the disaster. It's probably not coming. Any help that will be rendered can only come from people inside the scene. The only way this can occur is through police/fire units in the neighborhood, and organized citizens groups. Japan is very fortunate to have a lot of capable people who seem to fall into the latter category. We have the CERT system in the USA - which is a step in the right direction - but I think we need some big improvements.

other Pete

So did anybody in Japan take advantage of their foreknowledge of this big one and get in a good place beforehand?

Philip : I noticed a couple of things from the video's in japan.

The first was that the Japanese were expecting a devastating earthquake, but they thought it would come from the south of their country. Apparently they have a serious risk from faults in the ocean to the south, and they have been banking on getting hit from that direction. But they were caught totally off guard by a major earthquake coming from the northeast. That's the great difficulty with natural disasters - it's the extreme unpredictability of the whole thing.

I did see one video where an entire town in the Sendai area got the whole thing right. They got the tsunami warning in time - with at least 10 minutes to spare. Local people went door-to-door and got everybody out of their houses. People all clustered up on the 3'rd floors of some strong buildings. Then the tidal wave came in and wrecked a lot of their town. But all the people in that town were safe. That was a "picture perfect" response.

I don't know why it is that some towns in Japan were caught completely off-guard. Maybe they were located further inland.

In principle we have a tsunami warning system here on the California coast. There are sirens and they are supposed to be connected to a warning center. I honestly could not tell you whether it will work in a short-notice situation (10 mins or less). We may find out the hard way. I'm not counting on the sirens here to go off ... the sensible policy is to get moving fast as soon as the quake stops.

The Japanese death toll has now gone above 10,000 people. That's a big jump from yesterday's figures.

other Pete

It really depends on where you live. Not every town has early warning systems nor tall enough buildings...even in Japan. If you have only 10 minutes warning, it is all but impossible to outrun an tsunami which is coming for you at hundreds of miles per hour.

http://www.realnewsreporter.com/?p=843



The problem is do you take the warnings seriously? Are you prepared or are you paranoid? (rhetorical question of course). Even the paranoids are sometimes correct and being correct on the low probability occasion that you are correct could just save you life, but it would be a pretty miserable existence on the balance of things.



I heard today from a scientist from the USGS who was commenting on the 8.9-9.0 Japanese earthquake who said that they thought that the earlier 7.1 earthquake was the main event but was then shown to just be the pre shock (d'oh!). He was then asked if another 8.9-9.0+ could occur and dismissed this out of hand even though five minutes earlier he stated categorically that you cannot predict earthquakes.

> The problem is do you take the warnings seriously?

Well, I don't think it's a 'problem,' and the answer is "no." :-> Nobody predicted this earthquake or any other. Some people have been lucky in guessing that one would occur, but they've also guessed wrong much more often. You're right, accepting all the predictions would lead to a miserable life, and you still wouldn't know when the big one was actually coming.

The P-wave monitoring system gave the Japanese a full minute warning and allowed hundreds of bullet trains to stop, industrial and chemical plants to stop processes in an orderly fashion, for power systems to be shut down. It wasn't enough time for everything to be secured but it saved thousands of lives and billions in damage.

Their Tsunami warning system gave the affected area about eleven minutes warning. For thousands that heeded the warning, and were close enough to safety to make it, that eleven minutes of warning was the difference between life and death.

I was impressed with the tsunami warning system in Japan - at least for the towns where it did work. This video shows it clearly in action ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2uJN3Z1ryck

This warning system saved a LOT of lives. However, you not only need to have the warning system in place, you also need citizens who beleive it and act immediately.

RE The BIG ONE In L.A.: I have been doing a lot of fact checking and background research. The best logic I can come up with today is the following ... the southern section of the San Andreas is probably at highest risk. That puts Los Angeles & Palm Springs directly in the crosshairs. The most likely timing is sometime in the next 4-5 years, and highly likely within the next 20 years. That is based on earthquake frequencies. There is no agreement at all on the possible size of the quake. But I think it is overly optimisitic to conclude that it won't be bigger than an 8.0. A lot of people around here seem to believe that, but I remain unconvinced. My main concern is that there have been several huge quakes over the last 6-7 years on different sides of the Pacific Plate (tectonic plate). It seems entirely plausible that we could experience something quite similar in So. California. The only redeeming feature is that our fault line is on land and it is not a subduction zone (it is a strike-slip fault line). So the chances of a huge tsunami are reduced, but I can't rule it out.

The probable location for a big tsunami on the West Coast is in Oregon or Washington State, and also in Alaska. They have major fault lines that are subduction zones located under the ocean, and relatively close to the coast. Those are the cities that need to implement a Japan-style tsunami system. But will they?

other Pete

Don't forget Puente Hills under LA. That's a relatively recently discovered fault. No early warning system for that one because it's too close to us.

Also,Don't forget The Inglewood-Newport Fault,Stretches from Culver City to Newport Beach on into The Ocean,Actually I'd heard it extends into Century City,but The Fault is Not visible,beyond Culver city.It is a Right Reverse Slip Fault,It was responsible for The LongBeach Quake in 1935,of which had the 2nd highest death toll in California History!Many folks think it was responsible for The Baldwin Hills Dam Disaster of 1964!It's been Mildly Active up to '09 with a few 4.5'ers!

I was on Santa Rosa Island, doing some volunteer work for Channel Islands National Park, when the quake struck. The next day we got the tsunami prediction which indicated a two to three foot wave arriving at the island about 8:15 AM. At that time we were along the south coast of the island at an elevation of about fifty feet, with the ability to get much higher very quickly, if necessary. We saw nothing out of the ordinary, the elephant seals on the beach didn't even rouse themselves, but it was great to have the info from the tsunami warning center. It allowed us to get in a normal work day.

Interestingly, I understand the funds for the Tsunami Warning Center have been cut in current congressional action. Doesn't sound like a good idea to me.

I think Lucy Jones, USGS, has the best take. She said she would be happy to live in Seattle and wouldn't be "Sleepless in Seattle," but would be "Sentient in Seattle." She has forgotten more about earthquakes than I will ever know, and I am comfortable with her conclusions.

Just a point of info. SoCal is riddled with faults (many of which are geological in nature) and quite a few of them are submerged. In 1812, one of them in the Santa Barbara Channel let go, triggering a tsunami which flooded Santa Barbara up to the steps of the mission. Coastal landslides, unrelated to earthquakes, can generate big waves that have been able to sink fairly large vessels at anchor in the islands. There is no substitute for advance, thoughtful, preparation.