Not being a TEOTWAWKI theory sort of gal, I watched a programme on British TV last night called Horizon. It was about what would happen to the UK if the gulf stream (that keeps our weather so mild for the latitude) stopped. They reckon that excess fresh water flowing into the Artic from the melting Greenland ice sheet and increased river output from the Siberian Rivers would stop the current circulating. The effect of not having this warm water flow past us is predicted to be devastating to North western Europes climate. At a basic level, it would get COLD. There would be an increase in snow fall and ice storms. In this situation, I think its fair to say that the UK's infrastructure as is wouldn't cope very well.

Anyway, here's the URL for the programme for more details:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/

The programme got me thinking though.. IF it happenned, would I be prepared?

The answer without to much thought was no.

So what could I do to get prepared?

As a research student living off a maintenance grant (=constantly broke) living in rented multiple occupancy short term accommodation, things like large stores of food, water, fuel are out of the question (I move on average every 12 months). As are generators etc.

If this were to occur, I assume that national infrastructure (water, electricity, gas, transport) would be minimal or non-exsistant. Medical and emergency services would be stretched massively.

Given all that what preparations could I make as an individual?

I have some ideas that I'll post later on today and as I think of them later. I've just noticed how long this post is getting! I'd be especially interested to hear what people do who live in those sort of conditions already.

Like I said above, this is only a mental exercise for a bit of fun, but who knows what useful ideas may be generated?

<img src="images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" /> Answers on a postcard please....!

[rant warning]

OK, so let's just suppose that this theory isn't totally WHACKED (which it is). Something like this is going to take a few lifetimes to actually make an impact. The rate of melt in the arctic is indeed increasing and the cold water will displace / reroute some of the warmer gulf stream water. If that is physically sound it is already happening. The resulting decrease in regional temperatures should quickly result in an increase in snowfall and a decrease in melting in the trouble spots long before there is a threatening impact on the climate of the broader region. As this response weaken (as it must for the scenario to be at all worth considering) average temperatures in the region will slowly drop say 1/2 degree per year (that would be extremely radical change for climate) Meaning that you might have a few decades of colder winters with more than usual snowfall but nothing really troublesome. For the situation to become truely dire you would have to see freezing of the channel in winter. If you got to that point there would be no melting from the greenland icecap or arctic cap since it would be cold enough to freeze the channel that far south. By that time you would be facing a climate similar to wisconsin and those folks muddle by without much more trouble than you tho with perhaps a bit more cheese. Climate change is something that we should worry about but its rate is slow and can be adapted to even on the scale of national infrastructure.

[/rant warning]

I don't think this is likely to happen at all. You're right that climate change takes time etc. I guess I was thinking about that chaos we had recently when snow ( very little snow) brought part of the country to a halt (well the M1 anyway).

I figure if catastrophes and TEOTWAWKI is going to happen there's nothing I can do about it so there's very little point worrying about it.

The general approach to most situations here on the forum appears to be get trained and try to have the right tools at the right time. Sometimes this involves storing large amounts of stuff. As someone who can't store huge amounts, I guess I'm curious as to other solutions to things...

So although I absolutely agree that this scenario isextremely unlikely, it got me thinking....

OK so I will try to be a bit more thoughtfull.

Cold weather preps. If you might be without power for a bit during a winter storm you might wan't some light and heat. Perhaps some way to boil water inside. For all of these purposes the Alpaca Kerosene stove / heater and some newick candles would be a good thing. For being stucked in traffic during a winter storm you would want to have extra sweaters, blankets, warmth in the car and perhaps some signalling devices and some water. For these the newick candles, some army surplus wool blankets, spare gloves, hats, perhaps a ski coverall (that is what I carry) would probably suffice. If you wanted to add a sterno stove as well for heat and water melting so much the better. Just remember that you can't light anything on fire in the car unless you also open a window to exhaust the CO and bring in some O2. The heat addition may be negligible because of the heat lost thru the open window. Signalling might be simply a cell phone if you are in an area of decent coverage else you might want to consider getting your amateur radio ticket and at least a HT with a roof whip. A sturdy pair of winter boots in the car is also a good idea. You aren't looking for fit or fashion here just warm and cheap since they will ride in the car until an emergency and be used only to hike to the nearest building that you can gain access to for shelter. If you hike somewhere pocket the sterno stove and newick candles so you can heat whatever shelter you find.

I lived in Newfoundland for a couple of years and I have to say that the UK is a bit useless when it comes to a bit of bad weather. But I also think that any environmental changes we have will be slow enough for us to cope with. If not, I don't mind, everyone will stay in and I can have the countryside to myself <img src="images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> I loved being in Newf' and it doesn’t take a lot of effort to get used to a harsher climate. Hey, 25 years ago we used to get snowed in every year in Southern England and the North was even worse, maybe we will just return to the good old days!

FWIW, I understand the exercise.

It is, I suppose, marginally possible to lead a long life in which nothing particularly challenging happens. At the other extreme, when we experience the next asteroid or other "extinction event", it's likely that everyone is going to have a VERY bad day, and it may not matter a bit what one has stored in the cellar, or how easily one can build a fire.

In between, though, there is an infinite range of events that are more or less likely, and that are survivable with some degree of human effort. Most of us will experience some of them, sometime, but we have no way of knowing which, or when.

So- the value of any such scenario doesn't much depend on how likely it is or isn't. The event being contemplated is just a stand-in for the almost-inevitable challenging events in our futures that we do NOT forsee. If we could forsee what was coming, it wouldn't be much of a challenge. :-)

Specifics aside, just the fact that you're contemplating such things prepares you much better than most. Knowledge and skills take up no extra space, are no extra weight to carry, and usually cost little to acquire. In your situation, I'd worry less about what gear you should acquire, than about which skills you feel you should have and don't... and there's almost no telling what skills might be important in a crisis. Only you can identify the gaps in your overall competence, and remedy them. Almost any competence enhances all your others, so it's a great positive-feedback loop in your favor.

One of my favorite Heinlein quotes (and a lot of other people's):

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."

It may be true that those interested in survival tend to be generalists, but I'll be it's even more true that generalists tend to be survivors.

PresumedA_Lost,

Wow, by the time I'd read Liz'a post and the the various responses, I'd come to almost the same thoughts, you got there first. Nice read. I concur.

Thanks. If we're all starting to think alike, it might just mean we're hanging out here too much... <img src="images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

Perhaps we need some new thoughts or innovations.

OTOH, Perhaps we are actually comming to the convergence of experience and expertise that occurs as one nears the truth.

Thanks for the replies!

As I completely failed to post the thoughts I'd come up with, I'll do so now.

When I posted, I was really thinking of gear, but as people have said, the skills are what's important to use the gear.

Useful skills I can think of:
First aid:
Mine's out of date (the last formal stuff I did was in the Girl Guides, which I left at 14, I've done bits and pieces since, but nothing comprehensive). So I've contacted the St.JOhns Ambulance and hope to update my skills.
HAM:
I've heard this can be quite expensive, not really an option at the mo..
Fitness:
Not really a skill, more of a general preparedness thing (especially in Sheffield, which is built on far too many hills <img src="images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />)
Driving:
I'm hopefully starting lessons agaiin soon. Getting a driving license would be useful generally............

Any others I've missed?
Mini-me, thanks for the thoughts. Those Newick candles look interesting. Does anybody know of a UK supplier (internet or otherwise)?