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#213257 - 12/17/10 09:34 PM Re: Terrorist Nuke? - Shelter in place, says FEMA [Re: Dagny]
philip Offline
Addict

Registered: 09/19/05
Posts: 639
Loc: San Francisco Bay Area
Originally Posted By: Dagny

> big snip<
[i]Bystanders miles away would witness a 100-mph fireball shooting five miles into the sky. Sun-surface heat, hyperexplosive pressures and 900-mph winds would level buildings for half a mile. Between 50,000 and 100,000 people would vanish in smoke and flame.

Flash-blind drivers 10 miles away would crash, blocking evacuation routes. [i]Fallout would rain down for hundreds of miles, according to the White House's Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation,posted on the Internet in June.



I recommend that everyone read that pamphlet from about page 19 on to see what the government really projects instead of hysteria from a local reporter. The government does expect a blinding flash of light from a nuke, but they expect the blindness to last all of 30 minutes if it's night and the pupils are fully dilated. (Oh, and it's up to 15 miles away at night.) And the half-mile severe damage zone won't be totally leveled - because of blockage by buildings, some will survive. It's a complicated calculus based on explosion altitude, building congestion, and zoning (yes, zoning - buildings with good construction provide breaks in the damage).

And the fallout is a problem that's mitigated by the passage of time, as I noted in my original post. As others have noted, I'm fully expectant that the hordes would try to evacuate; I also expect that other hordes would fight off the carriers of radiation, and we'd have a fight between people trying to get out and others trying to stop them (same in any other mass-casualty event like disease or chemical disaster).

My plan remains staying and sheltering in place, with some flexibility as I try to stay upwind, upstream, uphill from whatever contamination is being spread around.


Edited by philip (12/17/10 09:34 PM)

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#213259 - 12/17/10 11:23 PM Re: Terrorist Nuke? - Shelter in place, says FEMA [Re: ki4buc]
rebwa Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: 01/25/09
Posts: 295
Originally Posted By: ki4buc
"L.A. dry run shows urban nuke attack 'a survivable event'"

http://content.usatoday.net/dist/custom/...=41773400.story

There is this great animation show shrinking fallout zone:

http://www.usatoday.com/video/index.html#/Fallout+from+an+improvised+nuclear+device/712474766001

"The government would be preoccupied with so many tasks — identifying the culprit; tracking the effects of the blast; securing government buildings; ushering critical personnel to safe locations; amassing drugs and supplies — that federal help won't arrive for 24 to 72 hours, the White House guidance says."


Thanks for sharing those links--scary stuff to even think about as well as what it would do to the country as a whole.

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#213261 - 12/18/10 12:25 AM Re: Terrorist Nuke? - Shelter in place, says FEMA [Re: philip]
Dagny Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 11/25/08
Posts: 1918
Loc: Washington, DC
Originally Posted By: philip
Originally Posted By: Dagny

> big snip<
[i]Bystanders miles away would witness a 100-mph fireball shooting five miles into the sky. Sun-surface heat, hyperexplosive pressures and 900-mph winds would level buildings for half a mile. Between 50,000 and 100,000 people would vanish in smoke and flame.

Flash-blind drivers 10 miles away would crash, blocking evacuation routes. [i]Fallout would rain down for hundreds of miles, according to the White House's Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation,posted on the Internet in June.



I recommend that everyone read that pamphlet from about page 19 on to see what the government really projects instead of hysteria from a local reporter. The government does expect a blinding flash of light from a nuke, but they expect the blindness to last all of 30 minutes if it's night and the pupils are fully dilated. (Oh, and it's up to 15 miles away at night.) And the half-mile severe damage zone won't be totally leveled - because of blockage by buildings, some will survive. It's a complicated calculus based on explosion altitude, building congestion, and zoning (yes, zoning - buildings with good construction provide breaks in the damage).

And the fallout is a problem that's mitigated by the passage of time, as I noted in my original post. As others have noted, I'm fully expectant that the hordes would try to evacuate; I also expect that other hordes would fight off the carriers of radiation, and we'd have a fight between people trying to get out and others trying to stop them (same in any other mass-casualty event like disease or chemical disaster).

My plan remains staying and sheltering in place, with some flexibility as I try to stay upwind, upstream, uphill from whatever contamination is being spread around.



It's obviously not going to be "The Day After" if terrorists get hold of one or a few or even several low-yield nukes.

Whether blinded for several seconds or 30 minutes, the reporter is correct. The blast flash would cause a lot of car accidents that block evacuation routes. And then there are macula retinal burns the report discusses which could cause permanent blindness -- bigger risk for those driving toward the detonation, such as in the case of Washington, D.C.: I-66 eastbound, I-270 southbound, I-395 northbound or I-95 or the BW Parkway southbound, Route 50 west from Annapolis or the GW Parkway inbound.

Fifteen miles encompasses the entire 64-mile Beltway if the Capitol, WH or Pentagon are targeted. There will be car accidents far outside the Beltway from people gawking at the distant 5-mile high mushroom cloud.

The 10-kiloton scenario should be comforting to those who don't live or work in or near top-tier targets and don't have family or friends who do. It should be comforting to Annapolis, Frederick and Baltimore and all of PG County, Maryland -- which is often downwind of DC. Georgetown could feel a bit more optimistic, if the wind is blowing as it usually does. Anyone who is usually upwind of DC, Manhattan, Chicago, Los Angeles or other cities can take some comfort in it.

The damage projections may resonate differently with those who live and work in prospective Severe Damage Zones or, if we're "lucky," the Moderate Damage Zone. My neighborhood is comprised of 100 year old, or older, rowhouses. Any fires ignited in the MDZ are going to burn for awhile, and spread, while the nearest operating fire stations decide whether and how to respond on roads that may be blocked by debris.

Whether a single 10-kiloton bomb, something bigger or a smaller nuke -- it would be a profoundly disturbing event for the entire nation if any city in it were the site of a nuclear detonation, of any size. If detonated in a populated area, it will eclipse any other disaster this country has ever suffered.

It won't be the end of the world -- except for the dead or hideously injured.


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#213294 - 12/18/10 09:34 PM Re: Terrorist Nuke? - Shelter in place, says FEMA [Re: Dagny]
philip Offline
Addict

Registered: 09/19/05
Posts: 639
Loc: San Francisco Bay Area
> Whether a single 10-kiloton bomb, something bigger or a smaller nuke --
> it would be a profoundly disturbing event for the entire nation if any city
> in it were the site of a nuclear detonation, of any size. If detonated in a
> populated area, it will eclipse any other disaster this country has ever suffered.

True. The issue for those in the affected area is preparation and for the rest of the country how and where the outrage is expressed.

> It won't be the end of the world -- except for the dead or hideously injured.

"Only the dead have seen the end of war." George Santayana.

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#213302 - 12/19/10 12:26 AM Re: Terrorist Nuke? - Shelter in place, says FEMA [Re: philip]
ki4buc Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/10/03
Posts: 710
Loc: Augusta, GA
I don't think the forum software allows merging of threads, so cross-referencing threads:

http://forums.equipped.org/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=213301

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#213312 - 12/19/10 04:23 AM Re: Terrorist Nuke? - Shelter in place, says FEMA [Re: philip]
Susan Offline
Geezer

Registered: 01/21/04
Posts: 5163
Loc: W. WA
In the event of a deliberate nuclear event, what makes anyone think that FEMA will be operable? It's headquartered in Washington D.C., one of the most likely targets. Are the local ones in any position to take over, or are they also in a place that would be a likely target?

The trouble with government agencies is that they make plans for the best-case scenarios, not the worst-case scenarios. They do what is easiest and what is most politically expedient.

Sue

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#213315 - 12/19/10 04:51 AM Re: Terrorist Nuke? - Shelter in place, says FEMA [Re: Susan]
gatormba Offline
Member

Registered: 02/07/07
Posts: 136
Loc: Alabama
Originally Posted By: Susan
In the event of a deliberate nuclear event, what makes anyone think that FEMA will be operable? It's headquartered in Washington D.C., one of the most likely targets. Are the local ones in any position to take over, or are they also in a place that would be a likely target?

The trouble with government agencies is that they make plans for the best-case scenarios, not the worst-case scenarios. They do what is easiest and what is most politically expedient.

Sue


You bring up an interesting point. If the FEMA leadership were taken out by the attack, I think FEMA would still be operable but due to the chaos associated with the senior people being gone any response from FEMA would be delayed. For example, instead of 3 days for FEMA to you help it may be 7,10, or 12 days. This is just one more reason why I think everyone should be prepared on all fronts to shelter in place for at least 2 weeks or more. Government "help" will arrive eventually but I don't count on it in any of my plans for at least 14 days that way if they get here sooner they will have exceeded my expectations and my plans.
_________________________
"It's a legal system, not a justice system!"

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#213317 - 12/19/10 05:54 AM Re: Terrorist Nuke? - Shelter in place, says FEMA [Re: philip]
Richlacal Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 02/11/10
Posts: 778
Loc: Los Angeles, CA
I saw a Documentary last August,There are Still Quite a Number of People that,Survived Hiroshima & Nagasaki,Some of Them Saw the End of War!

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#213326 - 12/19/10 06:25 PM Re: Terrorist Nuke? - Shelter in place, says FEMA [Re: gatormba]
Lono Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 10/19/06
Posts: 1013
Loc: Pacific NW, USA
Originally Posted By: gatormba
Originally Posted By: Susan
In the event of a deliberate nuclear event, what makes anyone think that FEMA will be operable? It's headquartered in Washington D.C., one of the most likely targets. Are the local ones in any position to take over, or are they also in a place that would be a likely target?

The trouble with government agencies is that they make plans for the best-case scenarios, not the worst-case scenarios. They do what is easiest and what is most politically expedient.

Sue


You bring up an interesting point. If the FEMA leadership were taken out by the attack, I think FEMA would still be operable but due to the chaos associated with the senior people being gone any response from FEMA would be delayed. For example, instead of 3 days for FEMA to you help it may be 7,10, or 12 days. This is just one more reason why I think everyone should be prepared on all fronts to shelter in place for at least 2 weeks or more. Government "help" will arrive eventually but I don't count on it in any of my plans for at least 14 days that way if they get here sooner they will have exceeded my expectations and my plans.


FEMA is divided into a number of regions, the Pacific Northwest for instance is in Region X (ten), and has independent leadership reporting to those in Washington DC. When disaster strikes, states turn to their FEMA regional leadership, not to DC, and they lead FEMA response unless / until the response is so large that DC has to step in with a national presence. The Red Cross and a number of other agencies operate the same way - all disasters are local, local response works well until resources are overwhelmed, at which point you call in state, regional and eventually federal (and even international) level response.

Like I said, I think the Region X FEMA has been pretty good so far - alot of Fugate appointments, folks working real problems, running realistic scenarios, and figuring out the logistics of response to different disasters. Apart from some critical administrative leadership, supplies and other resources aren't all located in the DC area. I would venture to say that if DC were taken out in some sort of nuclear attack, FEMA regional administrators could continue to be responsible for response in their regions.

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#213328 - 12/19/10 07:16 PM Re: Terrorist Nuke? - Shelter in place, says FEMA [Re: philip]
philip Offline
Addict

Registered: 09/19/05
Posts: 639
Loc: San Francisco Bay Area
> They do what is easiest and what is most politically expedient.

I'm afraid that's true.

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