Yes, it's the time of the year again - time for you to do an audit of your preparedness situation with regard to Natural Disasters and Large Scale Emergencies.

First of all, revisit your risk profile - has anything changed upwind of you? Are your local government services shrinking to a point of invisibility? Do you know your neighbors?

Take a look at the severe weather that's happened in your area in the last 12 months. Was there anything that happened near you that was a "wow, that's close" situation? For example, we had a severe straight line wind incident last year that knocked over many trees just 500 yards away from my house, it even knocked over a stone barn. So over the winter and early spring, I did a "fall-down" assessment of trees around my home and had the riskiest trees taken down. In that same storm, we had a 72 hour power failure - fuels and systems worked, but only as a result of preplanning. We also had a fairly heavy winter around here - and my backhoe went kaput for snow removal!

In terms of large-scale emergencies from man-made incidents and accidents, we can certainly look to the Gulf Oil Spill as a current model that will affect millions and cost billions - but one that you really can't do much short of pack up and move somewhere else to deal with - and that's got to be on your planning list as well - for an extreme situation - we're talking abandonment of your home - could you pack out what you need plus a little of what you want in, say, 24 hours? What would you need to generate income when you got somewhere else?

In terms of large-local incidents - like Tennesee flooding - how equipped are you to be able to help those who lost everything? What will YOU be able to contribute to recovery efforts? What do YOU know how to do that is needed to help restore and rebuild? Skills and networks are critical.

Thanks for the reminder Martin.

It is also the time to break out and look over one's Hurricane Plan for those who live in those areas.

I'll be assuming HurCon 5 (Hurricane Condition) on the 1st of June.

Your plan for a cat 5 should be LEAVE unless you happen to live in a bunker with a 3 month autonomous supply inventory.

Leave? Are you kidding? I won't get on TV standing on my roof in a flooded out town if I leave!?!?


Sorry, I couldn't help it, but seriously, there might be circumstances under which you could justify staying. What I think of as the family "homestead" (my mom's house) is at 80ft above sea level in a town on long island sound. We could seek shelter in her basement, and though the house might sustain severe damage, I think we'd survive. Why stay? You're right, the circumstances would be unusual, but I can imagine grid lock on I-95 so bad that our choice would be stay home or ride the hurricane out stuck in a car in traffic (not a choice). You might say leave earlier, but thinking about New England, unless one had the means to fly away, we might just drive north or south (or a little bit inland) and end up closer to where the storm actually hits than if we'd stayed home.

Point being, I hope we don't get hit by a hurricane! Then again...1938 did happen....

If there's anyone on ETS where the term "Annual preparedness audit" just seems like a natural fit, it's certainly you, Wildman!

I just have to ask--does your HurCon checklist include hurricane-driven oil slicks? Boy, that would sure be a mess--storm surge dumping crude oil miles inland from the beaches. Would probably be churned up into rather small globules by that point, but still, that would be a widespread mess.

That's why I live far enough inland so it won't soil my home grounds!

We will survive this as we have survived all other kinds of events up to this point!

I leave the homestead for Cat 3 and worse. HurCon 5 is set during the season.

Long island is doomed if a cat 5 hits. I lived there a long time, there's no way to evacuate, in normal conditions traffic is impossible, in and emergency it would be completely impossible except by air or by water. There's no place on the Island where cat 5 winds would not be devastating, and the storm surge alone would destroy huge amounts of property south of Sunrise Highway. The North Shore of Nassau County would suffer tremendous tree damage, the roads up that way are few, narrow, and tree-lined. Out east things are low enough for washovers to happen, and even in the middle - places like Mineola, East Meadow, Centerreach, Islip and so on, flooding would be a big issue as the groundwater catch basin systems are of limited capacity. The more i know about emergency planning and management, the better i feel about moving away from there in the mid 1990's. Sorry, thats just how it is.

Yeah, Long Island would NOT be fun. I doubt a Cat V will ever get here -a IV, maybe, a III - sure (simply based upon the fact that no V has ever made it this far north, based upon ocean temps)

There are spots you could probably shelter in place on the North Shore/Brooklyn/Queens (remember, THEY are both on Long Island too) - I thought about 'canes when I bought my house - 110ft above sea level, and lttle danger from trees directly to my house