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#172472 - 04/30/09 12:10 PM It's Good to Have A Plan
MartinFocazio Offline

Pooh-Bah

Registered: 01/21/03
Posts: 2177
Loc: Bucks County PA
So, yesterday, when the WHO went to level 5, I flipped through the existing township emergency plan to see what a "Pandemic" event plan would entail.

As I suspected, it was a little more complicated than my original plan (get more beer, cigars and ammo) but not much so.

But what was even better was an exchange of email with my operations group at work - I asked them if they had any thoughts on what to do since NYC is turning into the Swine Flu capital of America - and they said that they were "already using our existing plan". Oh how I smiled. They already have a plan for remote access for those who don't work from home normally, they have a communications plan to do a mass notify in case we need to all stay home...it was all set.

Makes me glad to work here not somewhere else.

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#172476 - 04/30/09 12:54 PM Re: It's Good to Have A Plan [Re: MartinFocazio]
oldsoldier Offline
Old Hand

Registered: 11/25/06
Posts: 742
Loc: MA
Honestly, I think this swine flu is WAY overblown. WHO reports 200-300,000 deaths a year from flu, mostly the infirm (elderly, young children, compromised immune systems). Its good to have a plan, for sure-but, I think this is a chicken little story myself.
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#172478 - 04/30/09 01:03 PM Re: It's Good to Have A Plan [Re: oldsoldier]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5341
Loc: SOCAL
I'd say what I really think but that would have political overtones so. . . yeah, the media has given this flu some serious legs for now. By mid-May we'll be thinking back and wondering what became of the swine flu.
_________________________
Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
Okay, what’s your point??

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#172480 - 04/30/09 01:18 PM Re: It's Good to Have A Plan [Re: oldsoldier]
Am_Fear_Liath_Mor Offline
Carpal Tunnel

Registered: 08/03/07
Posts: 3078

Quote:
Honestly, I think this swine flu is WAY overblown. WHO reports 200-300,000 deaths a year from flu, mostly the infirm (elderly, young children, compromised immune systems). Its good to have a plan, for sure-but, I think this is a chicken
little story myself.


It may seem that way now, sort of the calm before the storm. The WHO is an extremely conservative organisation and statements such as 'All of humanity under threat' should make everyone prepare for the worst.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/swine-...-WHO-warns.html

I have now concluded that that the WHO now have a reasonably good idea of the mortality rate, this being the critical number in their projected modelling for the mass casualty projections, from the initial Mexico outbreak.


Example USA - Population 300 Million. Attack Rate (first wave, worst case scenario) 50% of populus infected = Numbers of potentiall infections = 150 Million

Now multiply the Number of infections by the mortality rate

1% mortality = 1.5 Million deaths
2% mortality = 3 Million deaths

etc, etc

10% mortality = 15 Million deaths

All these deaths occurring within a 3-4 (probably a little longer within the US due to greater geographical dispersion) month period starting now.

As for Governmental planning the UK has the best plan in the world and the means to implement its plan because of a unified National Health Service management system. By reading carefully through this document you soon begin to realise there is no plan except to just suck it up and see and hope for the best.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/19_10_05_bird_flu.pdf

Sometimes survival is just means being a head of the game before the mass panic ensues.






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#172481 - 04/30/09 01:42 PM Re: It's Good to Have A Plan [Re: Am_Fear_Liath_Mor]
Russ Offline
Geezer

Registered: 06/02/06
Posts: 5341
Loc: SOCAL
While we're making plans it might be good to keep it in perspective.
_________________________
Better is the Enemy of Good Enough.
Okay, what’s your point??

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#172487 - 04/30/09 02:34 PM Re: It's Good to Have A Plan [Re: MartinFocazio]
Arney Offline
Pooh-Bah

Registered: 09/15/05
Posts: 2485
Loc: California
Now they closed an entire school district in Texas? Wow, where do all these students go for the next 10 days? In most households where no adult is normally home, that's a real problem to deal with on a moment's notice. That's certainly something to plan ahead for, and I think it will be quite common throughout the country in the coming weeks unless the flu suddenly stops dead in its tracks. I mean, just one suspected case can shut down a school, so it doesn't take much to do it.

So, if your child's school or daycare shuts down for 10 days (or longer, depending on how things develop), think about what to do with them.

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#172495 - 04/30/09 03:37 PM Re: It's Good to Have A Plan [Re: Arney]
Jesselp Offline
What's Next?
Enthusiast

Registered: 07/19/07
Posts: 266
Loc: New York
They were talking about flu on the news yesterday (shocking) and some pundit or another was complaining that the NYC public schools should really be closed to contain the flu.

I recall reading somewhere that on days that the public schools are closed without warning (snow days, etc.) the economic output of the cty falls by some rediculously high number, like 30% (no, I do not have a source, so don't quote the number, but it is high). All the people who normally have elementary school age kids at school have to scramble for childcare, and many wind up not being able to go to work.

In a pandemic situation, this is the best case scenario. More likely is that after a day or two people are no longer able to miss work, and all the neighborhood kids get left with the one stay-at-home parent on the block, which completely defeats the purpose of closing the schools in the first place.

I'm not saying in won't, or shouldn't happen, but it's not a decision that will be taken lightly. I think things will have to get much worse before the school system here gets (or even should get) shut down.

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#172499 - 04/30/09 04:00 PM Re: It's Good to Have A Plan [Re: oldsoldier]
LoneWolf Offline
Member

Registered: 11/06/07
Posts: 103
I have to agree. At this point in time, I think it's overblown as well. I'm a nursing student and I was going over the posted protocols at the hospital I'm doing my rotations. We have had no infected patients as of yet. However, it was posted that in the event of an infected patient, we are to put the patient in a negative pressure room, gown, glove and mask in order to provide patient care. In addition, if there is the possibilty of aerosol droplets, add to that a positive pressure hood. Sounds to me like a combination of MRSA and TB precautions. All this for a flu that AT THIS TIME doesn't appear to be as bad as the seasonal flu.

Please, please, please, don't read into my post that I'm taking this lightly. I'm watching things as carefully as I can along with making sure my preps are in place. I just think that maybe there is some media hype going on. Let's face it .... it sells papers. Don Henley's "Dirty Laundry" is going through my head as I type.


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#172501 - 04/30/09 04:04 PM Re: It's Good to Have A Plan [Re: LoneWolf]
KG2V Offline

Veteran

Registered: 08/19/03
Posts: 1371
Loc: Queens, New York City
I have a plan

"When in trouble, and in doubt...."
_________________________
73 de KG2V
You are what you do when it counts - The Masso
Homepage: http://www.thegallos.com
Blog: http://kg2v.blogspot.com

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#172505 - 04/30/09 06:23 PM Re: It's Good to Have A Plan [Re: KG2V]
Tom_L Offline
Addict

Registered: 03/19/07
Posts: 690
Right now, it's really hard to figure out just how serious it might be. Keeping in mind the SARS and avian flu scare, I'd be inclined to think it's just something blown out of proportion.

But like one of the previous posters said, WHO does NOT issue that kind of statement unless there is a truly credible threat. WHO and governments all over the world realize full well that any warning of a global outbreak is going to seriously affect the economy, which happens to be in a pretty poor state as it is. I suspect the real concern is the virus mutating in some deadlier form. It does seem to have the potential to turn into something a lot nastier.

Maybe it will turn out to be just another false alarm. But there are also some inconsistencies. For one thing, the reported number of new infections is very small. Surprisingly small in fact. Just a few days ago there was talk of about 160 dead in Mexico and several thousand infected. They've reduced those numbers an awful lot since. I don't know about everyone else but to me, all those things together do raise an eyebrow.

Personally, I've not yet taken any drastic measures and don't intend to in the foreseeable future. But if gets any worse, I can see how the flu could have a major impact on our way of life. Especially in regard to travel. My G/F is going abroad for one month, leaving this Monday. Not the best time and I must admit I'm a little worried.

While I hope for the best I'll still watch the news regularly and buy a little extra supplies just in case. YMMV.

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